14 October 2010

Short XLF

The XLF is hitting the $15 resistance level once again. Since descending through that level back in May, XLF has approached the $15-level seven times. As you may notice on the chart, the first six times, XLF has fallen significantly from that resistance level within two days. Will it happen a seventh time?

In late May, at the arrow marked A, XLF dropped to $14.30 in two days, giving back over %4.

In mid June, at arrow B, XLF dropped 50 cents in two days, and gave up over 11% through the remainder of the month.

In mid July, at arrow C, XLF fell 7% over the next five trading days.

Late July, at arrow D, XLF dropped a mere 50 cents in three days before hitting another peak at arrow E. XLF fell $1.80 in the first few weeks of August, a good 12% decline.

Mid September, at arrow F, XLF dropped 77 cents in two days, a bit over 5%.

Yesterday, XLF hit a high of $15-even before closing flat at $14.86. And this was on a day when the S&P was up 0.7%.

Might have to pick up some October puts for a quick one-or-two day trade...