Dent May opened up for A.C. Newman this evening at the Bowery Ballroom.
I heard hints of Stephin Merritt. My buddy Dave heard some Morrissey. I hadn't heard the ukulele used in such a pop way since my last trip to Hawaii, where Iz Kamakawiwoʻole is still played everywhere, a dozen years after his death.
I'll also credit Carl Newman for touring with such a credible and entertaining opening act.
16 March 2009
13 March 2009
12 March 2009
Portfolio Changes
Sold off my position in TNA, the 3X-Bull Russell 2000 ETF at $14.18, from a cost basis of $12.90, for a gain of 9.9%
The R2K chart below shows the tremendous moves over two of the last three trading days. Now that the index is short-term overbought, as shown by the over-90 RSI(2) indicator, I thought it prudent to take some profits. I may jumped off of this bear-market-rally a bit too soon, but I can always put cash back in on a pullback.
Speaking of taking profits, over the past week or so, I built up a substantial position in FAS, the 3X-Bull Financial ETF. Today, my position in FAS is still significant, but constitutes a much smaller portion of my portfolio.
I sold off a block of shares in the early afternoon for $4.50, from a cost basis of $3.44, for a gain of 30.8%.
As the trading day approached its end, I unleashed another block of shares at $5.15, for a gain of 49.7%
Why? The mark-to-market hearings didn't produce any bombshells, but the subcommittee expects the FASB and SEC to report back within three weeks on adjusting the accounting rules. Three weeks is plenty of time to trade around a FAS position.
Also, if you look at the chart below, the financials are now significantly overbought according to RSI(2) and butting up against the trendline established at the start of '09. The XLF ran up over 10% today; I started to feel a bit piggish if I didn't cash out some of the gains.
The R2K chart below shows the tremendous moves over two of the last three trading days. Now that the index is short-term overbought, as shown by the over-90 RSI(2) indicator, I thought it prudent to take some profits. I may jumped off of this bear-market-rally a bit too soon, but I can always put cash back in on a pullback.
Speaking of taking profits, over the past week or so, I built up a substantial position in FAS, the 3X-Bull Financial ETF. Today, my position in FAS is still significant, but constitutes a much smaller portion of my portfolio.
I sold off a block of shares in the early afternoon for $4.50, from a cost basis of $3.44, for a gain of 30.8%.
As the trading day approached its end, I unleashed another block of shares at $5.15, for a gain of 49.7%
Why? The mark-to-market hearings didn't produce any bombshells, but the subcommittee expects the FASB and SEC to report back within three weeks on adjusting the accounting rules. Three weeks is plenty of time to trade around a FAS position.
Also, if you look at the chart below, the financials are now significantly overbought according to RSI(2) and butting up against the trendline established at the start of '09. The XLF ran up over 10% today; I started to feel a bit piggish if I didn't cash out some of the gains.
11 March 2009
Portfolio Changes
Added to my position in FAS, the 3X-Bull Financial ETF, picking up more shares at $3.89. That takes the cost basis of my position to $3.44. Tomorrow's House Financial Services Committee meeting will determine whether or not I lighten my FAS holdings.
I sold off the remaining shares of FXP at $36.51 from a cost basis of $59.33 for a loss of 38.5%.
I sold off the remaining shares of FXP at $36.51 from a cost basis of $59.33 for a loss of 38.5%.
10 March 2009
Portfolio Changes
I spent yesterday away from the markets. I missed a good opportunity to lighten on my disappointing position in the ultra-short China ETF, FXP. Nevertheless, I significantly lightened my FXP holdings, selling off 370 shares at $36.78 from a cost basis of $59.33, for a loss of 38%.
It's an ugly loss, but if we're in the midst of a bear market rally, I'd rather take a smaller loss today than a bigger loss on Thursday. And it's much easier to digest a loss on a day when your long positions look this good.
It's an ugly loss, but if we're in the midst of a bear market rally, I'd rather take a smaller loss today than a bigger loss on Thursday. And it's much easier to digest a loss on a day when your long positions look this good.
Mark-to-Market Trading Opportunity?
This Thursday, the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on mark-to-market rules, which are credited with exacerbating the deterioration of the banking sector's balance sheets.
Jon Najarian suggests going long FAS, the 3X-Bull Financials ETF ahead of the hearing. I did just that last week based on the early word on revisiting mark-to-market, as well as the grossly oversold state of the financial sector.
Here are a couple of CNBC videos covering this topic and trade:
This fine blog from the L.A. Times pointed out some of the industry firepower pressuring Congress to back off mark-to-market:
Andrew Snyder at Today's Financial News is skeptical of the long-term benefit of suspending mark-to-market, but he does recognize the potential short-term trading opportunity, which is all with which I am concerned:
Inner Workings is another blog with some interesting analysis in favor of junking mark-to-market.
Finally, Trader Mike reviewed today's lackluster market action and is decidedly pessimistic about mark-to-market sparking much of anything:
Jon Najarian suggests going long FAS, the 3X-Bull Financials ETF ahead of the hearing. I did just that last week based on the early word on revisiting mark-to-market, as well as the grossly oversold state of the financial sector.
Here are a couple of CNBC videos covering this topic and trade:
This fine blog from the L.A. Times pointed out some of the industry firepower pressuring Congress to back off mark-to-market:
31 industry groups and financial institutions called for "immediate action" to halt the "spiral of accounting-driven financial losses."
In other words, end mark-to-market as it is now broadly applied to the banking industry.
The letter’s signatories included the American Bankers Assn., the Independent Community Bankers of America, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
...
From the letter:
"Let us be clear, real economic losses should be recognized and are necessary for orderly markets. However, the recognition of losses that do not have a basis in economic reality is unsustainable in any environment. Appropriate changes in mark-to-market accounting should not wait until mid-year or year-end. This will only allow the spiral of accounting-driven financial losses to continue."
Andrew Snyder at Today's Financial News is skeptical of the long-term benefit of suspending mark-to-market, but he does recognize the potential short-term trading opportunity, which is all with which I am concerned:
If you think last week was a big one for the banking sector, this week could blow your mind. The catalyst will come at 10:00 a.m. this Thursday when a House subcommittee meets to discuss the near-term fate of mark-to-market accounting rules.
If the recent surge in calls for temporarily relaxing the market-regulating rules gains traction, we could easily see triple-digit share price gains at some of the nation’s most prominent banks. After all, without mark-to-market accounting, many banks could re-write their balance sheets. Assets that were once written down to nearly zero could be given just about any valuation.
Unfortunately, that is where the trouble and the opportunity lie.
...
If Congress starts to show ambition to change current mark-to-market accounting rules, be ready for a major charge in the equities market. But be ready to sell at the top. The gains will not last long. This is a temporary fix at best.
The only way to get out of this mess is to let the free market do its magic. Washington will keep trying to find an instantaneous solution. But we all know it will never work.
This week’s action may create some trading opportunities, but long-term investors should be wary of making any major moves.
Inner Workings is another blog with some interesting analysis in favor of junking mark-to-market.
Finally, Trader Mike reviewed today's lackluster market action and is decidedly pessimistic about mark-to-market sparking much of anything:
The banking sector had a rare good day but that wasn’t enough to keep the entire market up today. While the S&P 500 made an inside day — a sign of a possible reversal — the Nasdaq made a new low. Volume dropped way off on both indices and the VIX barely budged, so those looking for panic were left disappointed today. The market is very oversold (T2108 is way down at 5.97) but it’s been lacking any positive catalysts to get buyers interested. Perhaps the mark-to-market hearing later in the week will do the trick… but I’m not holding my breath.
09 March 2009
Songs Inspired from Bowling in Boston
The Pig was up in Boston this weekend, celebrating the birthday of blog friend Brian Grimm. We bowled 80's-style, with black lights, glowing pins, and some old-school videos blazing on screens above the ten-pin action.
Granted, we didn't hear any of the following songs, but I'm not posting Kool and the Gang, or Miami Sound Machine on this blog. These are songs inspired by the bowling action, namely, things I would play if I were fortunate enough to own and operate an alley.
First up, a couple of songs by Cut Copy, followed by some classics that today's New Wave resurgence definitely took for inspiration.
Cut Copy - Feel the Love (Live)
Cut Copy - Hearts on Fire
Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Dark - Forever Live and Die
New Order - Perfect Kiss
Granted, we didn't hear any of the following songs, but I'm not posting Kool and the Gang, or Miami Sound Machine on this blog. These are songs inspired by the bowling action, namely, things I would play if I were fortunate enough to own and operate an alley.
First up, a couple of songs by Cut Copy, followed by some classics that today's New Wave resurgence definitely took for inspiration.
Cut Copy - Feel the Love (Live)
Cut Copy - Hearts on Fire
Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Dark - Forever Live and Die
New Order - Perfect Kiss
05 March 2009
Catching a Falling Knife - Portfolio Changes
I caught some falling knives today by picking up additional shares of the 3X-Bull Financials ETF, FAS. Added to my position at $3.19, $2.93, and $2.75 bringing down the cost basis to $3.37.
This story about the potential re-evaluation of mark-to-market accounting rules encouraged me to build up my long position in the financials:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Equities investors looking for some hope in an ugly market on Thursday pointed to a news report that a House panel next week plans a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules blamed by many for aggravating the financial sector's troubles.
Reuters on Wednesday quoted a source briefed on the matter who said the subcommittee on capital markets has tentatively slated for next Thursday a hearing on the rules that require assets be valued at current market prices.
"The accounting rule has been a major contributor to the debt spiral," Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research Inc. Some financial institutions contend the rule compels them to mark down assets to artificially low prices.
Lifting the requirement "would not replace the Treasury plan to buy troubled assets, [but] it would increase the capital side of the banks' ledger and potentially alleviate the need for short-term capital from the Fed," said Marc Pado, chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
04 March 2009
Portfolio Changes
I picked up some shares of the 3X-Bull Financials ETF, FAS, throughout the afternoon at an average cost of $3.77.
Why did I go long on the downtrending financials?
First off, the chart below shows the oversold financials trading at the lower end of its channel:
Second, I've said several times that I wanted to swing trade the FAS/FAZ duo, and today's market provided a decent entry point. If XLF trades toward $7.50 over the next few trading days, I'll be happy to unload the FAS position.
Why did I go long on the downtrending financials?
First off, the chart below shows the oversold financials trading at the lower end of its channel:
Second, I've said several times that I wanted to swing trade the FAS/FAZ duo, and today's market provided a decent entry point. If XLF trades toward $7.50 over the next few trading days, I'll be happy to unload the FAS position.
Fortune Magazine - November 1936
Thanks to my late father and his growing up during the Great Depression, I have a fascinating collection of Fortune magazines from the 1930s.
These are large, hefty tomes, not throwaway magazines. The covers may allude to the contents, or they may not. They seem more like classic album covers to me, where the meaning isn't always clear, but it makes you want to check out what's inside.
Here's the cover to the November 1936 issue (click on the image to enlarge it to a worthy size):
The issue contains wonderful analyses of New Deal projects, like NYC's Triborough Bridge and Midtown Hudson Tunnel (now known as the Lincoln Tunnel). But that's for another time--the advertisements are the real draw.
I'm not sure if you can ignore the apple-chomping pig's head in the background, but this is an ad for Heinz Plum Pudding in a can:
Check out the ad copy:
Check out this beauty, the 1937 Lincoln Zephyr. It's got a V-12 engine that produces 110 horsepower, one more than my 4-banger '07 Fit. That's 70 years of progress right there.
Conservative, tradition-bound Philadelphia is no longer because a self-proclaimed liberal newspaper, the Philadelphia Record, has the largest morning circulation. By 1938, Moses Annenberg's Inky reclaimed the top spot and in 1947, put the Record out of business.
If Philly is too parochial for you, perhaps a sailing abroad would be of interest. Say, to Germany. Yes, Deutschland of the Third Reich, eerily advertised in an American business publication.
If that isn't enough to creep you out, how about a tour of welcoming 30's Japan? The Yen is cheap. And the Japanese tourism board is cheap as well, sporting for only a half-page ad.
The following is an advertisement for casement windows that meet the needs for buildings of moderate cost. In modern-day New York, buildings with original casement windows are something special, and rarely of moderate cost. Seeing an ad from back when casement windows were contemporary and novel is pretty cool.
Now we're at the back cover, featuring an ad for Camel cigarettes, encouraging the reader to smoke Camels "for digestion's sake!" The joke is res ipsa loquitur.
These are large, hefty tomes, not throwaway magazines. The covers may allude to the contents, or they may not. They seem more like classic album covers to me, where the meaning isn't always clear, but it makes you want to check out what's inside.
Here's the cover to the November 1936 issue (click on the image to enlarge it to a worthy size):
The issue contains wonderful analyses of New Deal projects, like NYC's Triborough Bridge and Midtown Hudson Tunnel (now known as the Lincoln Tunnel). But that's for another time--the advertisements are the real draw.I'm not sure if you can ignore the apple-chomping pig's head in the background, but this is an ad for Heinz Plum Pudding in a can:
Check out the ad copy:
Someone once said that Dickens was England's greatest chef because he did his cooking with pad and pencil!Selling plum pudding by praising English food. That's funny.
Let the quip pass. There is no call to defend the culinary genius of a nation that has given plum pudding to the world.
Check out this beauty, the 1937 Lincoln Zephyr. It's got a V-12 engine that produces 110 horsepower, one more than my 4-banger '07 Fit. That's 70 years of progress right there.
Conservative, tradition-bound Philadelphia is no longer because a self-proclaimed liberal newspaper, the Philadelphia Record, has the largest morning circulation. By 1938, Moses Annenberg's Inky reclaimed the top spot and in 1947, put the Record out of business.
If Philly is too parochial for you, perhaps a sailing abroad would be of interest. Say, to Germany. Yes, Deutschland of the Third Reich, eerily advertised in an American business publication.
If that isn't enough to creep you out, how about a tour of welcoming 30's Japan? The Yen is cheap. And the Japanese tourism board is cheap as well, sporting for only a half-page ad.
The following is an advertisement for casement windows that meet the needs for buildings of moderate cost. In modern-day New York, buildings with original casement windows are something special, and rarely of moderate cost. Seeing an ad from back when casement windows were contemporary and novel is pretty cool.
Now we're at the back cover, featuring an ad for Camel cigarettes, encouraging the reader to smoke Camels "for digestion's sake!" The joke is res ipsa loquitur.
02 March 2009
Portfolio Changes
Picked up 1K shares of the 3X-Bull Russell 2000 ETF, TNA at $12.90.
And yes, I chuckle at the ticker symbol, too.
Portfolio Changes
I sold off a large portion of my short-term FAZ holding on Friday.
This morning, it looks like I was a bit premature on the profit-taking. Fortunately, I held onto 220 shares up until a few minutes ago, when I sold 'em off at $72.49, from a cost basis of $56.20, for a gain of 29.0%.
That's pretty hot on such a cold, snowy day.
This morning, it looks like I was a bit premature on the profit-taking. Fortunately, I held onto 220 shares up until a few minutes ago, when I sold 'em off at $72.49, from a cost basis of $56.20, for a gain of 29.0%.
That's pretty hot on such a cold, snowy day.
01 March 2009
27 February 2009
Dr. Doom and the Money Honey
After the end of a dismal Friday, dismal week, and dismal February for the markets, the Money Honey somehow extracted some good news from Dr. Doom.
In the video below, Maria Bartiromo asked Nouriel Roubini if there were any sectors or bright spots at all in the economy.
Roubini responded, "Restructuring firms and makers of anti-depressants."
I love how Dr. Doom toys with CNBC.
Portfolio Changes
Sold the remaining 200 shares of my 3X-Short Russell 2000 ETF (TZA) at $81.39 from a cost basis of $71.48, for a gain of 13.9%.
Sold 500 shares of my 3X-Short Financials ETF (FAZ) at $63.06 from a cost basis of $56.20 for a gain of 12.2%. I'm still holding onto 220 shares into next week.
Sold 500 shares of my 3X-Short Financials ETF (FAZ) at $63.06 from a cost basis of $56.20 for a gain of 12.2%. I'm still holding onto 220 shares into next week.
26 February 2009
Toad the Wet Sprocket
Since I'm seeing Toad play at Webster Hall tonight, why not mark the occasion with some video reminiscences.
My introduction to the band, their video for "One Little Girl":
Glen Phillips and Chris Thile playing "Windmills":
"Rings" is one of my favorite Toad songs, off their final record, Coil. The climbing arpeggios during the chorus always get me. The homemade video below isn't the point of the post; I just wanted to highlight the song.
And a little number that I used to sing back in college. (Hadn't seen the video before today. Didn't miss much by waiting this long to view it.)
My introduction to the band, their video for "One Little Girl":
Glen Phillips and Chris Thile playing "Windmills":
"Rings" is one of my favorite Toad songs, off their final record, Coil. The climbing arpeggios during the chorus always get me. The homemade video below isn't the point of the post; I just wanted to highlight the song.
And a little number that I used to sing back in college. (Hadn't seen the video before today. Didn't miss much by waiting this long to view it.)
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