Periodically, when I have nothing else to post, I'm going to re-evaluate the WershovenistPig Stock Watch List, to update figures, check for news stories, and trim the fat, if necessary. This blog is still young, so this type of posting will evolve as the list grows, I begin actually investing money, and perhaps learn some html (a nifty graphical chart would be better than straight text).
Name Date Added - Original IBD Scores - Original CNBC Stock Scouter Score - Closing Price in IBD on Date Added - Current IBD Scores - Current CNBC Stock Scouter Score - Current Closing Price - Price Percentage Change Since Addition Date
CUB - 8/24 - 21/10/C+/D- - 2 - $17.12 - 21/15/C/C/D- - 4 - $18.06 - +5.5%
DSW - 8/26 - 83/25/A-/B - na - $22.94 - 83/23/B/B/C - na - $22.00 - -4.1%
DWRI - 8/29 - 97/7/D/A-/D - 3 - $11.48 - 97/9/E/A/E - 3 - $11.88 - +3.5%
ATYT - 8/30 - 64/5/A/B/D - 3 - $11.34 - 63/10/A/B/B- - 4 - $12.88 - +13.6%
CVTX - 8/31 - 6/92/A+/D/B - 7 - $26.56 - 6/94/A+/D/B+ - 6 - $29.13 - +9.7%
EDO - 8/31 - 88/22/C+/B/B- - 7 - $27.30 - 88/23/C/B/B - 4 - $27.84 - +2.0%
CBH - 9/1 - 90/73/D+/A/B+ - 10 - $33.72 - 90/75/C-/A/A- - 9 - $34.29 - +1.7%
ARXT - 9/5 - na - na - $33.92 - 36/90/A-/na/na - na - $31.91 - -5.9%
CTRN - 9/6 - 98/94/E/A/B- - na - $26.03 - 98/95/E/A/B- - $26.04 - +0.0%
BDE - 9/6 - 95/86/A+/A/B - na - $16.24 - 95/86/A+/A/B - na - $16.70 - +2.8%
UNT - 9/6 - 93/86/A/A/A+ - 10 - $51.09 - 93/87/A+/A/A+ - 10 - $51.17 - +0.0%
APC - 9/6 - 95/84/A+/A/B- - 8 - $91.75 - 95/85/A+/A/B- - 8 - $92.88 - +1.2%
ATYT is the big winner on the watch list, even considering the bad news from the day I added ATYT.
ATI Tech: Warning? What Warning?
By Troy Wolverton
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
8/30/2005 1:43 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/troywolverton/10240331.html
ATI Technologies (ATYT:Nasdaq) issued a big warning Monday, but the graphics chipmaker still seems to have some big believers on the Street.
The company forecast that fourth-quarter revenue will come in almost $100 million less than previously predicted, marking the third time the company has sought to lower expectations for its coming report and the second straight quarter that it has issued a formal warning.
Despite that, analysts rushed to the company's defense Tuesday, with at least one of them upgrading the stock and several others reiterating their buy or outperform ratings.
Most argued that the sales shortfall was expected and that the stock is trading at a historically low level. Most expect the company's stock and results to turn around in coming months as the company introduces new products.
"Stubborn though it may seem, we are sticking with our buy rating and $16 price target on ATYT. We believe there are multiple potential catalysts for [the] November quarter," said Deutsche Bank analyst Ben Lynch in a report issued Monday night. (Deutsche Bank has not done recent investment banking business for ATI Technologies.)
But it wasn't just analysts who defended the stock. In the after-hours markets following ATI's announcement late Monday, the company's shares traded off as much as 14%. But on Tuesday, they recovered much of that lost ground. In recent trading, they were actually up 6 cents to $11.40.
Blaming disappointing sales of and prices on its chips for desktop computers, ATI said Monday that it will post fourth-quarter revenue of between $465 million and $480 million. That was down from a previous range of $550 million to $580 million and an initial estimate of about $600 million.
Although ATI did not give a bottom-line estimate, its updated forecast implied a loss of $100 million or more, thanks in large part to an expected $60 million to $70 million inventory write-off. Analysts were expecting the company to post a 7 cents a share profit for the quarter and revenue of about $560 million.
Still, analysts said they were more surprised by the size of the shortfall rather than the warning itself. Likewise, several said that they had seen the inventory write-down coming.
"Our checks had indicated that ATI aggressively lowered prices of high-end and mid-range desktop products in order to try to clear its inventory" -- an indication of inventory problems, noted Gurinder Kalra, an analyst with Bear Stearns, which has not done recent investment banking business for ATI.
The keys for the company going forward are a series of planned new products, including new desktop graphics chips, analysts said. ATI also should see a boon from the launch of Microsoft's (MSFT:Nasdaq) Xbox 360, which incorporates the company's technology, as well as from other consumer electronics products that use its chips, such as digital televisions and wireless phones, they said.
"We believe that ATYT is a turnaround story after its recent problems and is poised for growth heading over the next 12 to 18 months," said P.J. McNealy, an analyst with American Technology Research, which doesn't do investment banking.
Still, many analysts and investors made similar arguments as recently as June, when the company warned about third-quarter results. But some of those analysts said they were simply too early in calling for a turnaround in ATI's stock.
"In hindsight we were two months early on our upgrade," said Arnab Chandra, an analyst with Lehman Brothers, which has not done recent investment banking business for ATI. But he added, "We reiterate our original thesis that ATI has hit a bottom and risk/reward is favorable at these levels."
Still, not everyone was ready to hop on the ATI train. In his own note, Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton reiterated his hold rating on ATI shares. The company is losing market share to rival Nvidia (NVDA:Nasdaq) in the high-end and enthusiast markets. Meanwhile, how quickly the company can ramp up production of its next generation chips and how well they will be accepted by the market are unclear, Bolton said.
Further, the company's gross profit margins, even excluding the inventory write-off, are coming in significantly below the company's targets.
"We remain cautious on ATYT shares. Based on previous trough multiples, we believe downside exists to the approximate $8.50 to $9 range," said Bolton, whose firm has not done recent investment banking business for ATI.
07 September 2005
About time I looked at some energy stocks...
My friend Dan recently discussed with me his belief that the energy sector is the place to be with oil prices and Katrina potentially causing a downturn in the rest of the US economy. Dan surprised me with his investing knowledge and experience, since we usually focus on more important issues, like poker, obscure musical acts, and the Phils. So with his encouraging words, I thought it was about time I examined some energy stocks.
Fortunately, the IBD came through with another piece today by Nancy Gondo, Energy Stocks Still Rising, And Some Near Buy Point. Several energy stocks are mentioned as worth watching, including World Fuel Services (INT), Western Gas Resources (WGR), Bois d'Arc Energy (BDE), Andarko Petroleum (APC), and Oil States International (OIS). Additionally, after finding out that OIS was recently named the #9 stock on Forbes.com's Top 100 Mid-Cap Stocks, I noticed #4 was Unit Corporation (UNT), so I added it to this quick-and-dirty research list. First, let's look at the cold hard numbers for each of these companies with their IBD and CNBC Stock Scouter scores:
INT - Earnings Per Share (EPS) 93, Relative Price Strength (RS) 91, Indsutry Group Relative Strength (GRS) A+, Sales+Profit Margins+ROE (SMR) B, Accumulation/Distribution (Acc/Dis) B
WGR - EPS 94, RS 93, GRS A+, SMR B, Acc/Dis A+
BDE - EPS 95, RS 86, GRS A+, SMR A, Acc/Dis B
APC - EPS 95, RS 84, GRS A+, SMR A, Acc/Dis B-
OIS - EPS 97, RS 95, GRS A+, SMR B, Acc/Dis A+
UNT - EPS 93, RS 87, GRS A+, SMR A, Acc/Dis A+
INT - 7
Pro - Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Positive
The ratio of INT's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is slightly below the average of all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive
Con - The price-to-earnings multiple is close to the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Neutral
Shares are being heavily sold by financial institutions. Neutral for a small company like INT
WGR - 5
Pro - The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive
Previous day's closing price for WGR was significantly above its 50-day moving average. Very positive
Con - The price-to-earnings multiple is higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative
Shares are being heavily sold by financial institutions. Neutral for a large company like WGR
BDE - N/A
APC - 8
Pro - The ratio of APC's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is slightly below the average of all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive
The price-to-earnings multiple is lower than average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive
Con - Shares are being heavily sold by financial institutions. Neutral for a large company like APC
OIS - 5
Pro - Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Positive
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive
Con - The price-to-earnings multiple is close to the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Neutral
Two or more executives, directors or major shareholders sold a large number of shares recently. Very negative
UNT - 10
Pro - Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Positive
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive
The price-to-sales multiple is significantly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Very positive for a medium- to large-sized company like UNT
Con - The price-to-earnings multiple is close to the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Neutral
Here's some background and additional financial data I mined from Marketwatch.com:
INT - The Group's principal activity is to market marine and aviation fuel services. It operates in two segments: Marine Fuel Services and Aviation Fuel Services. Marine fuel services segment consists of marketing marine fuel and related services to a broad base of international shipping companies. Aviation fuel services segment consists of extending credit and providing around-the-world single-supplier convenience, 24-hour service and competitively priced aviation fuel and other aviation related services. Aviation related services include fuel management, flight plans, weather reports, ground handling and flight permits. These services are provided to passenger, cargo and charter airlines. The Group operates in the Untied States, Singapore, the United Kingdom and other foreign countries. During 2004, the Group acquired Tramp Holdings Limited. The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 1.20%. The profit margin, the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is N/A.
WGR - The Group's principal activities are to design, construct, own & operate natural gas systems & facilities for the processing & treating of natural gas & natural gas liquids. The Group operates in four segments: gathering, processing & treating, exploration & production, marketing & transportation. Gathering, processing & treating segment connects oil & gas wells to the gathering systems for delivery to processing or treating plants. Exploration & production segment develops & explores natural gas to enhance & support the existing gathering & processing operations. Marketing segment buys & sells natural gas & NGLs in the wholesale market. Transportation segment transports natural gas through regulated pipelines for producers & energy marketers. The Group's operations are conducted in gas-producing basins in the Rocky Mountain, Mid-Continent & southwestern regions of the United States. The Group acquired properties in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico in October 2004. The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 14.03%. The profit margin, the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is 3.84%.
BDE - The principle activity of the Company is exploration, development and production of oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico. As of December 31, 2004, the Company had proved reserves of 305.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent and owned 104 oil producing and natural gas wells in the federal and state waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 47.62%. The profit margin the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is -81.79%.
APC - The Group's principal activities are the exploration, development, production and marketing of oil and gas. It operates in three segments: Oil and Gas Exploration, Marketing and Trading and Mineral business. Oil and Gas segment finds and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids. The Marketing and Trading segment is responsible for selling natural gas production as well as purchased volumes of third-party gas and oil. The Minerals segment finds and produces minerals in several coal, industrial minerals and trona (natural soda ash) mines. The Group's major areas of operations are located in the United States, primarily in Texas, Louisiana, the mid-continent and Rocky Mountain regions, Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, Canada, Algeria, Guatemala, Venezuela and other International areas. On 12-Aug-2004, the Group acquired Access Northeast Energy Inc.The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 65.83%. The profit margin the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is 31.92%.
OIS - The Group's principal activity is to provide specialty products and services to oil and gas drilling and production companies. The Group is into designing and manufacturing a range of products for offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, defense and general industrial applications. The products and services includes flexible bearings and connector products, subsea pipeline products, marine winches, mooring systems, rig equipment, blowout preventor stack assembly, integration, testing and repair services, fixed platform products and services. The Group also provides its well site services that range from catering and remote site accommodations to hydraulic well control and rental equipment. Regionally the Group operates in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. onshore, Canada, West Africa, the Middle East, South America and Southeast Asia. On 01-Feb-2005, the Group acquired Elenburg Exploration Company Inc. On 04-May-2005, the Group acquired Stinger Wellhead Protection Inc.The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 17.90%. The profit margin, the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is 7.26%.
UNT - The Group's principal activities are contract drilling of onshore oil and natural gas wells and the exploration, development, acquisition and production of oil and natural gas properties. The Group explores and produces oil and natural gas primarily in the natural gas producing provinces of Oklahoma and Texas areas of the Anadarko and Arkoma Basins, the Texas Gulf Cost and the Rocky Mountain regions.The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 33.71%. The profit margin the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is 19.46%.
Phew. Now out of the torrent of information above, what sticks out to me? Well, I already marked that in bold.
Looking at the IBD scores, the lagging RS of BDE (86), APC (84), and UNT (87) says to me that these stocks could be a bit cheaper to buy than their higher scoring brethren. These three also scored A grades for SMR.
The CNBC Stock Scouter scores give additional general guidance: BDE doesn't rate as it's a recent issue. WGR and OIS lag, while APC scores an impressive 8, and UNT a 10.
Reviewing gross and profit margins, APC has the best figures, with UNT close behind, as would be expected from their A's for SMR. BDE has an impressive gross margin figure, but is not making a profit.
BDE is an oil and gas explorer, with reserves...in the Gulf of Mexico. Katrina affected the company's operations as detailed in the press release below, but the hurricane's effects seem to be relatively minimal.
Bois d'Arc Energy, Inc. Updates Status of Gulf of Mexico Operations After Hurricane Katrina
- PR Newswire
HOUSTON, Sept 06, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Bois d'Arc Energy, Inc. ("Bois d'Arc" or the "Company") today announced that it has further assessed the damage to its Gulf of Mexico production facilities and the impact of Hurricane Katrina on its Gulf of Mexico operations.
Production -- All but one of the Company's production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico sustained only minimal damage. Bois d'Arc's Main Pass block 21 facility suffered substantial damage and will require extensive repairs. The facility had averaged 110 barrels of oil per day, net to the Company's interest. The restoration of this facility, which was insured, could take up to a year.
Bois d'Arc has restored approximately 45 million cubic feet equivalent of natural gas ("MMcfe") per day of its production in the Gulf of Mexico after being shut-in for six days and expects to have production up to 60 MMcfe per day by September 15th. The remaining production of 19 MMcfe per day is awaiting the start up of operations of third party pipelines and processing facilities. The pipeline operators have not informed Bois d'Arc of how long these systems will be down. The Company expects that it will not resume full production for several months. The expected start up of an additional 18 MMcfe per day scheduled for the third quarter is expected to be delayed due to third party pipeline problems as well as and the availability of construction services due to the repair activity.
Drilling -- The Company has resumed drilling operations on three wells in the Gulf of Mexico utilizing the three rigs under long-term contract. None of the drilling rigs sustained significant damage. As a result of Hurricane Katrina and the previous hurricane activity this year, Bois d'Arc has experienced a total of 34 idle rig days.
If you're still with me after all this, APC is the most interesting stock to me, with UNT a close second. BDE is also interesting, but much more speculative. OIS, with its oil services operations, could be very busy with work in the Gulf of Mexico, but its stock has had a nice run, and its numbers are just not as good. APC, UNT, and BDE will all be added to the WershovenistPig Stock Watch List.
Fortunately, the IBD came through with another piece today by Nancy Gondo, Energy Stocks Still Rising, And Some Near Buy Point. Several energy stocks are mentioned as worth watching, including World Fuel Services (INT), Western Gas Resources (WGR), Bois d'Arc Energy (BDE), Andarko Petroleum (APC), and Oil States International (OIS). Additionally, after finding out that OIS was recently named the #9 stock on Forbes.com's Top 100 Mid-Cap Stocks, I noticed #4 was Unit Corporation (UNT), so I added it to this quick-and-dirty research list. First, let's look at the cold hard numbers for each of these companies with their IBD and CNBC Stock Scouter scores:
INT - Earnings Per Share (EPS) 93, Relative Price Strength (RS) 91, Indsutry Group Relative Strength (GRS) A+, Sales+Profit Margins+ROE (SMR) B, Accumulation/Distribution (Acc/Dis) B
WGR - EPS 94, RS 93, GRS A+, SMR B, Acc/Dis A+
BDE - EPS 95, RS 86, GRS A+, SMR A, Acc/Dis B
APC - EPS 95, RS 84, GRS A+, SMR A, Acc/Dis B-
OIS - EPS 97, RS 95, GRS A+, SMR B, Acc/Dis A+
UNT - EPS 93, RS 87, GRS A+, SMR A, Acc/Dis A+
INT - 7
Pro - Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Positive
The ratio of INT's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is slightly below the average of all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive
Con - The price-to-earnings multiple is close to the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Neutral
Shares are being heavily sold by financial institutions. Neutral for a small company like INT
WGR - 5
Pro - The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive
Previous day's closing price for WGR was significantly above its 50-day moving average. Very positive
Con - The price-to-earnings multiple is higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative
Shares are being heavily sold by financial institutions. Neutral for a large company like WGR
BDE - N/A
APC - 8
Pro - The ratio of APC's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is slightly below the average of all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive
The price-to-earnings multiple is lower than average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive
Con - Shares are being heavily sold by financial institutions. Neutral for a large company like APC
OIS - 5
Pro - Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Positive
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive
Con - The price-to-earnings multiple is close to the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Neutral
Two or more executives, directors or major shareholders sold a large number of shares recently. Very negative
UNT - 10
Pro - Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Positive
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive
The price-to-sales multiple is significantly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Very positive for a medium- to large-sized company like UNT
Con - The price-to-earnings multiple is close to the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Neutral
Here's some background and additional financial data I mined from Marketwatch.com:
INT - The Group's principal activity is to market marine and aviation fuel services. It operates in two segments: Marine Fuel Services and Aviation Fuel Services. Marine fuel services segment consists of marketing marine fuel and related services to a broad base of international shipping companies. Aviation fuel services segment consists of extending credit and providing around-the-world single-supplier convenience, 24-hour service and competitively priced aviation fuel and other aviation related services. Aviation related services include fuel management, flight plans, weather reports, ground handling and flight permits. These services are provided to passenger, cargo and charter airlines. The Group operates in the Untied States, Singapore, the United Kingdom and other foreign countries. During 2004, the Group acquired Tramp Holdings Limited. The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 1.20%. The profit margin, the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is N/A.
WGR - The Group's principal activities are to design, construct, own & operate natural gas systems & facilities for the processing & treating of natural gas & natural gas liquids. The Group operates in four segments: gathering, processing & treating, exploration & production, marketing & transportation. Gathering, processing & treating segment connects oil & gas wells to the gathering systems for delivery to processing or treating plants. Exploration & production segment develops & explores natural gas to enhance & support the existing gathering & processing operations. Marketing segment buys & sells natural gas & NGLs in the wholesale market. Transportation segment transports natural gas through regulated pipelines for producers & energy marketers. The Group's operations are conducted in gas-producing basins in the Rocky Mountain, Mid-Continent & southwestern regions of the United States. The Group acquired properties in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico in October 2004. The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 14.03%. The profit margin, the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is 3.84%.
BDE - The principle activity of the Company is exploration, development and production of oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico. As of December 31, 2004, the Company had proved reserves of 305.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent and owned 104 oil producing and natural gas wells in the federal and state waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 47.62%. The profit margin the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is -81.79%.
APC - The Group's principal activities are the exploration, development, production and marketing of oil and gas. It operates in three segments: Oil and Gas Exploration, Marketing and Trading and Mineral business. Oil and Gas segment finds and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids. The Marketing and Trading segment is responsible for selling natural gas production as well as purchased volumes of third-party gas and oil. The Minerals segment finds and produces minerals in several coal, industrial minerals and trona (natural soda ash) mines. The Group's major areas of operations are located in the United States, primarily in Texas, Louisiana, the mid-continent and Rocky Mountain regions, Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, Canada, Algeria, Guatemala, Venezuela and other International areas. On 12-Aug-2004, the Group acquired Access Northeast Energy Inc.The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 65.83%. The profit margin the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is 31.92%.
OIS - The Group's principal activity is to provide specialty products and services to oil and gas drilling and production companies. The Group is into designing and manufacturing a range of products for offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, defense and general industrial applications. The products and services includes flexible bearings and connector products, subsea pipeline products, marine winches, mooring systems, rig equipment, blowout preventor stack assembly, integration, testing and repair services, fixed platform products and services. The Group also provides its well site services that range from catering and remote site accommodations to hydraulic well control and rental equipment. Regionally the Group operates in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. onshore, Canada, West Africa, the Middle East, South America and Southeast Asia. On 01-Feb-2005, the Group acquired Elenburg Exploration Company Inc. On 04-May-2005, the Group acquired Stinger Wellhead Protection Inc.The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 17.90%. The profit margin, the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is 7.26%.
UNT - The Group's principal activities are contract drilling of onshore oil and natural gas wells and the exploration, development, acquisition and production of oil and natural gas properties. The Group explores and produces oil and natural gas primarily in the natural gas producing provinces of Oklahoma and Texas areas of the Anadarko and Arkoma Basins, the Texas Gulf Cost and the Rocky Mountain regions.The gross margin, the percentage retained by the company of each dollar generated is 33.71%. The profit margin the percentage net income for each dollar of sales is 19.46%.
Phew. Now out of the torrent of information above, what sticks out to me? Well, I already marked that in bold.
Looking at the IBD scores, the lagging RS of BDE (86), APC (84), and UNT (87) says to me that these stocks could be a bit cheaper to buy than their higher scoring brethren. These three also scored A grades for SMR.
The CNBC Stock Scouter scores give additional general guidance: BDE doesn't rate as it's a recent issue. WGR and OIS lag, while APC scores an impressive 8, and UNT a 10.
Reviewing gross and profit margins, APC has the best figures, with UNT close behind, as would be expected from their A's for SMR. BDE has an impressive gross margin figure, but is not making a profit.
BDE is an oil and gas explorer, with reserves...in the Gulf of Mexico. Katrina affected the company's operations as detailed in the press release below, but the hurricane's effects seem to be relatively minimal.
Bois d'Arc Energy, Inc. Updates Status of Gulf of Mexico Operations After Hurricane Katrina
- PR Newswire
HOUSTON, Sept 06, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Bois d'Arc Energy, Inc. ("Bois d'Arc" or the "Company") today announced that it has further assessed the damage to its Gulf of Mexico production facilities and the impact of Hurricane Katrina on its Gulf of Mexico operations.
Production -- All but one of the Company's production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico sustained only minimal damage. Bois d'Arc's Main Pass block 21 facility suffered substantial damage and will require extensive repairs. The facility had averaged 110 barrels of oil per day, net to the Company's interest. The restoration of this facility, which was insured, could take up to a year.
Bois d'Arc has restored approximately 45 million cubic feet equivalent of natural gas ("MMcfe") per day of its production in the Gulf of Mexico after being shut-in for six days and expects to have production up to 60 MMcfe per day by September 15th. The remaining production of 19 MMcfe per day is awaiting the start up of operations of third party pipelines and processing facilities. The pipeline operators have not informed Bois d'Arc of how long these systems will be down. The Company expects that it will not resume full production for several months. The expected start up of an additional 18 MMcfe per day scheduled for the third quarter is expected to be delayed due to third party pipeline problems as well as and the availability of construction services due to the repair activity.
Drilling -- The Company has resumed drilling operations on three wells in the Gulf of Mexico utilizing the three rigs under long-term contract. None of the drilling rigs sustained significant damage. As a result of Hurricane Katrina and the previous hurricane activity this year, Bois d'Arc has experienced a total of 34 idle rig days.
If you're still with me after all this, APC is the most interesting stock to me, with UNT a close second. BDE is also interesting, but much more speculative. OIS, with its oil services operations, could be very busy with work in the Gulf of Mexico, but its stock has had a nice run, and its numbers are just not as good. APC, UNT, and BDE will all be added to the WershovenistPig Stock Watch List.
06 September 2005
Citi Trends (CTRN)
I first learned about Citi Trends (CTRN) in today's IBD:
CitiTrends plays in an already crowded discount retailer market, but it’s making a name for itself by targeting an underserved segment of the population. It sells trendy urban brandnames like Ecko, Members Only, Phat Farm and Rocawear geared toward a black American client base. The Savannah, Ga.-based chain also offers home decor, as well as private-label branded apparel. Big national brands account for roughly 30% of its sales, while less recognized brands make up 60% and private-label products, 10%. CitiTrends runs 221 stores located in affordable strip malls throughout 12 states in the Southeast, North Atlantic and in Texas. New states it plans to enter this year include Delaware, Kentucky, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Slated for 2006 are Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri and Ohio. The firm keeps costs down by focusing on strip malls in low to moderate income neighborhoods, and leasing previously occupied spaces instead of brand-new ones. Same-store sales rose 20%in August, up from 7% a year ago. Total sales jumped 49% to $24.8 million. But September sales may be affected by Hurricane Katrina, as some stores along the Gulf Coast were temporarily closed.
Nancy Gondo
CITI TRENDS INC (CTRN) Grp 189 $26.03
12.8M Shares 91 Comp. Rating 98 EPS RS 94 ROE 36%
OPERATES 212 VALUE-PRICED RETAIL STORES IN 12 SOUTHEASTERN STATES
(44 IN GA AND 32 IN SC).
As I've previously mentioned in this blog, while complaining about J.Crew and their conservative clothes that wear out liberally, my idea of fashion is wearing a particularly striking shade of argyle sock, or on the weekend, promoting bands I enjoy via loud t-shirts bought downstairs at the Bowery Ballroom. My exposure to to the brands mentioned in the IBD piece and sold at Citi Trends usually occurs on the subway. There, I notice the fashions seem right off the rack. Yes, these clothes could just be impeccably maintained, but I think these young "urban" men could also be a bit more fashion conscious than I, and likewise, spend more on clothing, and more often. From CTRN's numbers, it looks as though Citi Trends is serving "urban" men quite well.
But in fact, CTRN is not yet serving markets like New York. So there is still growth potential in this stock. As the article states, CTRN has stores in only 12 states, and has expansion plans in significant markets, like NJ, PA, MI, and IL.
CTRN could allow me to invest in trendy clothes without having to develop a fashion sense. CTRN also alleviates the risks involved in attempting to choose a single designer for investment purposes. The futures of these fashion houses come and go. Did you notice in the article that Members Only is apparently back in style after a 20-year hiatus? I don't have the eye to make calls on individual lines, but I won't need to with a holding like CTRN.
If anyone reading this has had any personal experience with Citi Trends, please comment. For now, CTRN has a place on the Stock Watch List.
CitiTrends plays in an already crowded discount retailer market, but it’s making a name for itself by targeting an underserved segment of the population. It sells trendy urban brandnames like Ecko, Members Only, Phat Farm and Rocawear geared toward a black American client base. The Savannah, Ga.-based chain also offers home decor, as well as private-label branded apparel. Big national brands account for roughly 30% of its sales, while less recognized brands make up 60% and private-label products, 10%. CitiTrends runs 221 stores located in affordable strip malls throughout 12 states in the Southeast, North Atlantic and in Texas. New states it plans to enter this year include Delaware, Kentucky, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Slated for 2006 are Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri and Ohio. The firm keeps costs down by focusing on strip malls in low to moderate income neighborhoods, and leasing previously occupied spaces instead of brand-new ones. Same-store sales rose 20%in August, up from 7% a year ago. Total sales jumped 49% to $24.8 million. But September sales may be affected by Hurricane Katrina, as some stores along the Gulf Coast were temporarily closed.
Nancy Gondo
CITI TRENDS INC (CTRN) Grp 189 $26.03
12.8M Shares 91 Comp. Rating 98 EPS RS 94 ROE 36%
OPERATES 212 VALUE-PRICED RETAIL STORES IN 12 SOUTHEASTERN STATES
(44 IN GA AND 32 IN SC).
As I've previously mentioned in this blog, while complaining about J.Crew and their conservative clothes that wear out liberally, my idea of fashion is wearing a particularly striking shade of argyle sock, or on the weekend, promoting bands I enjoy via loud t-shirts bought downstairs at the Bowery Ballroom. My exposure to to the brands mentioned in the IBD piece and sold at Citi Trends usually occurs on the subway. There, I notice the fashions seem right off the rack. Yes, these clothes could just be impeccably maintained, but I think these young "urban" men could also be a bit more fashion conscious than I, and likewise, spend more on clothing, and more often. From CTRN's numbers, it looks as though Citi Trends is serving "urban" men quite well.
But in fact, CTRN is not yet serving markets like New York. So there is still growth potential in this stock. As the article states, CTRN has stores in only 12 states, and has expansion plans in significant markets, like NJ, PA, MI, and IL.
CTRN could allow me to invest in trendy clothes without having to develop a fashion sense. CTRN also alleviates the risks involved in attempting to choose a single designer for investment purposes. The futures of these fashion houses come and go. Did you notice in the article that Members Only is apparently back in style after a 20-year hiatus? I don't have the eye to make calls on individual lines, but I won't need to with a holding like CTRN.
If anyone reading this has had any personal experience with Citi Trends, please comment. For now, CTRN has a place on the Stock Watch List.
05 September 2005
ARXT - Expectorating dollars or just coughing up phlegm?
Cramer was raving about this company's mucus mascot and ability to make money from their product. This is from the 8/30/05 'Mad Money' Recap:
Cramer was bullish on Adams Respiratory Therapeutics (ARXT:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take). Adams, which became public last month, closed up nearly 9% Tuesday after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the stock with an overweight rating.
Cramer also spoke highly of the stock later in the afternoon on his "RealMoney" radio show. Even though the stock soared, Cramer still likes it because it's a "long-term winner." Adams, a specialty pharmaceutical company, excites Cramer because of the company's new variations of its Mucinex expectorant drug. The new variations, Cramer believes, will be granted marketing exclusivity over a number of competing drugs.
The result, he says, is that Mucinex will have the market to itself.
Cramer expects the Food and Drug Administration to grant marketing exclusivity for these new variations in the first half of 2006. If that occurs, he expects Adams' revenue to triple.
I'm concerned about a one-trick-pony drug stock. A press release dated 8/19 from the company announced a third-party request for reexamination before the USPTO. This is a concern, although more of a long-term one, as reexaminations take a considerable amount of time to play out. However, I am also concerned that Adams only has a patent on the Guaifenesin delivery system, not on the drug itself, as noted in one of the amazon.com comments. The drug is found in Robitussin and has been around for decades.
Buying ARXT is gambling on the fact that the FDA is going to clear a path for Mucinex to dominate the marketplace, while dodging patent challenges, and maintaining growth figures beyond Wall Street's expectations. That there is quite a bit of risk.
I'm concerned that it's too expensive after the recent IPO and the attention Cramer paid to it on Mad Money. I think the stock is significantly more speculative than Cramer let on. But that won't stop me from putting ARXT onto the WershovenistPig Stock Watch List. Doesn't cost a thing.
But before I move on, here are the IBD ratings for ARXT, and some choice, and I mean choice customer reviews of Mucinex from amazon.com:
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Adams Respiratory Therap (ARXT) Ratings as of 9/5/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating - 36 - Adams Respiratory Therap has outperformed 36% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 93 - Adams Respiratory Therap has outperformed 93% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating - A - Adams Respiratory Therap belongs to an industry group that has performed in the top 20% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating - N/A - The SMR Rating is not available for Adams Respiratory Therap. This is due to incomplete information available to compute this rating.
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - N/A - The Acc/Dis Rating is not available for Adams Respiratory Therap. This is due to incomplete information available to compute this rating.
There ARE other options!, May 22, 2004
Reviewer: A customer
I have been taking 1200 mg. of Guaifenesin daily to control asthma for
ten years. For those of us without medical insurance, the availability
of Guaifenesin OTC has been a Godsend. When I did have insurance I was
able to obtain it cheaply with a small co-pay. Not so now that I pay
for all doctor's appointments and prescriptions out of pocket.
Adams Labs is NOT the only source for generic Guaifenesin. They have a
patent on their "time release" formulation ONLY, not on the drug
itself.
A google search for "Guaifenesin" will yield many Online sources in a
myriad of strengths, from 200 to 600mg tablets, at a fraction of the
cost of Musinex. I'm taking two 400mg tablets of a "fast acting" OTC
generic Guaifenesen 3 times daily and found this works just as well as
Musinex at a cost of 24.00 for a 30 day supply.
If you want Musinex, however, Amazon's price can't be beat. Especially
if you order 2 and get free shipping.
guaifensin OTC = rip-off, April 14, 2004
Reviewer: "xny" (Layton, UT) - See all my reviews
Mucinex works well, but for those of us who need it daily, it is a
rip-off compared to the prescription generic drug! .
Prior to guaifenesin going OTC, I was able to obtain a 3 months supply
of 1200mg tablets for $16. Since I need 1200mgs twice a day, the
600mgs Mucinex is very expensive--40 tablets lasts just 10 days.
I am very unhappy about the change to OTC. With no competitors, Adams
Labs is making a bundle on this medication. With generic prescription
drugs, the consumer was the winner, but with only one patent for the
OTC drugs, the makers are the winners and the consumer suffers for
it!!
It has a very bad after-taste, which the generic guaifenesin did not have.
Mucinex OK, good Amazon price, bad deal all around, September 13, 2004
Reviewer: K. Dawson (Wichita, KS, USA) - See all my reviews
I have chronic sinus problems, and have recently been diagnosed with
the early stages of emphysema at the tender age of 25. Yikes. I
frequently took LA Guaifenesin tablets 1200mg and better for
lung/sinus congestion and find that for thinning my thick junk, accept
no substitutes. Then, the advent of the OTC guaifenesin. Nobody in my
town carries it regularly, there's only one variety of extended
release available on the market, and my health insurance does not
cover OTC medications (I could get a month of Guaifenesin LA for (
$5.00 USD.) I'm glad someone stepped up to the plate and made an OTC
guaifenesin so that people could have access to it, and it's a good
formulation, but all in all Mucinex is just another symptom of the
patent abuse common in pharmaceuticals. They didn't reinvent the
wheel, and there were people already manufacturing it in
extended-release form in over-the-counter strength, yet now we have to
wait a few years before there will be an affordable long-acting OTC. I
got sick of it and bought half a kilogram of pharmaceutical grade
Guaifenesin for about $42 shipped.
Cramer was bullish on Adams Respiratory Therapeutics (ARXT:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take). Adams, which became public last month, closed up nearly 9% Tuesday after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the stock with an overweight rating.
Cramer also spoke highly of the stock later in the afternoon on his "RealMoney" radio show. Even though the stock soared, Cramer still likes it because it's a "long-term winner." Adams, a specialty pharmaceutical company, excites Cramer because of the company's new variations of its Mucinex expectorant drug. The new variations, Cramer believes, will be granted marketing exclusivity over a number of competing drugs.
The result, he says, is that Mucinex will have the market to itself.
Cramer expects the Food and Drug Administration to grant marketing exclusivity for these new variations in the first half of 2006. If that occurs, he expects Adams' revenue to triple.
I'm concerned about a one-trick-pony drug stock. A press release dated 8/19 from the company announced a third-party request for reexamination before the USPTO. This is a concern, although more of a long-term one, as reexaminations take a considerable amount of time to play out. However, I am also concerned that Adams only has a patent on the Guaifenesin delivery system, not on the drug itself, as noted in one of the amazon.com comments. The drug is found in Robitussin and has been around for decades.
Buying ARXT is gambling on the fact that the FDA is going to clear a path for Mucinex to dominate the marketplace, while dodging patent challenges, and maintaining growth figures beyond Wall Street's expectations. That there is quite a bit of risk.
I'm concerned that it's too expensive after the recent IPO and the attention Cramer paid to it on Mad Money. I think the stock is significantly more speculative than Cramer let on. But that won't stop me from putting ARXT onto the WershovenistPig Stock Watch List. Doesn't cost a thing.
But before I move on, here are the IBD ratings for ARXT, and some choice, and I mean choice customer reviews of Mucinex from amazon.com:
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Adams Respiratory Therap (ARXT) Ratings as of 9/5/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating - 36 - Adams Respiratory Therap has outperformed 36% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 93 - Adams Respiratory Therap has outperformed 93% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating - A - Adams Respiratory Therap belongs to an industry group that has performed in the top 20% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating - N/A - The SMR Rating is not available for Adams Respiratory Therap. This is due to incomplete information available to compute this rating.
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - N/A - The Acc/Dis Rating is not available for Adams Respiratory Therap. This is due to incomplete information available to compute this rating.
There ARE other options!, May 22, 2004
Reviewer: A customer
I have been taking 1200 mg. of Guaifenesin daily to control asthma for
ten years. For those of us without medical insurance, the availability
of Guaifenesin OTC has been a Godsend. When I did have insurance I was
able to obtain it cheaply with a small co-pay. Not so now that I pay
for all doctor's appointments and prescriptions out of pocket.
Adams Labs is NOT the only source for generic Guaifenesin. They have a
patent on their "time release" formulation ONLY, not on the drug
itself.
A google search for "Guaifenesin" will yield many Online sources in a
myriad of strengths, from 200 to 600mg tablets, at a fraction of the
cost of Musinex. I'm taking two 400mg tablets of a "fast acting" OTC
generic Guaifenesen 3 times daily and found this works just as well as
Musinex at a cost of 24.00 for a 30 day supply.
If you want Musinex, however, Amazon's price can't be beat. Especially
if you order 2 and get free shipping.
guaifensin OTC = rip-off, April 14, 2004
Reviewer: "xny" (Layton, UT) - See all my reviews
Mucinex works well, but for those of us who need it daily, it is a
rip-off compared to the prescription generic drug! .
Prior to guaifenesin going OTC, I was able to obtain a 3 months supply
of 1200mg tablets for $16. Since I need 1200mgs twice a day, the
600mgs Mucinex is very expensive--40 tablets lasts just 10 days.
I am very unhappy about the change to OTC. With no competitors, Adams
Labs is making a bundle on this medication. With generic prescription
drugs, the consumer was the winner, but with only one patent for the
OTC drugs, the makers are the winners and the consumer suffers for
it!!
It has a very bad after-taste, which the generic guaifenesin did not have.
Mucinex OK, good Amazon price, bad deal all around, September 13, 2004
Reviewer: K. Dawson (Wichita, KS, USA) - See all my reviews
I have chronic sinus problems, and have recently been diagnosed with
the early stages of emphysema at the tender age of 25. Yikes. I
frequently took LA Guaifenesin tablets 1200mg and better for
lung/sinus congestion and find that for thinning my thick junk, accept
no substitutes. Then, the advent of the OTC guaifenesin. Nobody in my
town carries it regularly, there's only one variety of extended
release available on the market, and my health insurance does not
cover OTC medications (I could get a month of Guaifenesin LA for (
$5.00 USD.) I'm glad someone stepped up to the plate and made an OTC
guaifenesin so that people could have access to it, and it's a good
formulation, but all in all Mucinex is just another symptom of the
patent abuse common in pharmaceuticals. They didn't reinvent the
wheel, and there were people already manufacturing it in
extended-release form in over-the-counter strength, yet now we have to
wait a few years before there will be an affordable long-acting OTC. I
got sick of it and bought half a kilogram of pharmaceutical grade
Guaifenesin for about $42 shipped.
01 September 2005
Commerce Bank
When I returned from St. Louis to New York in 1999, a top priority was to open a new bank account. At the time, I had two Commerce Bank accounts, one at Commerce Bank of Missouri, a law school remnant, and one at Commerce Bank of Cherry Hill, NJ from my high school and college days. So I went to my neighborhood Chase Bank at I believe was 109th and Broadway. And I left that Chase branch with my two Commerce accounts intact. Chase's service was unwelcoming and the requirements to open a checking account would have forced me to go on a tri-state scavenger hunt for all the random documentation they demanded. And my small sums would not have survived the minimum balance fees, and the per check fees, and atm withdrawal fees.
Keeping my money in an out-of-state account was difficult. Until my direct deposit went through, I was stuck mailing my paychecks home to my mom to deposit them. But I kept the account anyway, as Commerce had just started expanding into North Jersey. The branch nearest to me was now Hackensack, in Bergen County. It was just a matter of time before they crossed the Hudson.
Here's an example of their superior service: Penny is a cartoon character that helps you count coins for free via a computerized interface, even if you don't have an account. The Commerce near my office has three Penny counting stations, including one low to the ground for the wee ones. And if you guess the amount of your change within $1.99, you win a bank. Yes, it's in the shape of Commerce's logo which isn't much to look at. But who am I to quibble with logo design?
I appreciate that they are expanding and spreading their superior service around the region, and now the country with their recent acquisition of Palm Beach County Bank in Florida. So before I gush any more, let's examine CBH's IBD and CNBC Stock Scouter scores:
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj (CBH) Ratings as of 9/1/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating - 90 - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj has outperformed 90% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 73 - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj has outperformed 73% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS)Rating - D+ - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj belongs to an industry group that has performed in the bottom 40% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months. (This grade dropped from a C- to a D+ today)
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating - A - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj rates in the top 20% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - B+ - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj stock has been experiencing moderate buying, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks. (This grade dropped from an A- to a B+ today as buying of the stock has slowed.)
CNBC's Stock Scouter score of 8 (This grade dropped from 10 today)
Quick Summary
Pro Earnings growth in the past year is holding steady compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Neutral
One or more analysts has modestly increased quarterly earnings estimates for CBH. Positive
The price-to-sales multiple is slightly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive/Neutral for a medium- to large-sized company like CBH
Con
Shares are being heavily sold by financial institutions. Neutral for a large company like CBH
Recently, the stock has had a nice run. The Cramer effect, from him touting Commerce whenever a caller asks about a bank stock, has probably helped. Cramer's Philly pride shine through in his endorsement of Commerce. He describes CBH more as a retailer than a bank, which allows us to discount the IBD Industry Group grade of D+. CBH would be a solid purchase if the stock price comes down at all, so, onto the WershovenistPig Stock Watch List it goes.
Keeping my money in an out-of-state account was difficult. Until my direct deposit went through, I was stuck mailing my paychecks home to my mom to deposit them. But I kept the account anyway, as Commerce had just started expanding into North Jersey. The branch nearest to me was now Hackensack, in Bergen County. It was just a matter of time before they crossed the Hudson.
Here's an example of their superior service: Penny is a cartoon character that helps you count coins for free via a computerized interface, even if you don't have an account. The Commerce near my office has three Penny counting stations, including one low to the ground for the wee ones. And if you guess the amount of your change within $1.99, you win a bank. Yes, it's in the shape of Commerce's logo which isn't much to look at. But who am I to quibble with logo design?
I appreciate that they are expanding and spreading their superior service around the region, and now the country with their recent acquisition of Palm Beach County Bank in Florida. So before I gush any more, let's examine CBH's IBD and CNBC Stock Scouter scores:
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj (CBH) Ratings as of 9/1/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating - 90 - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj has outperformed 90% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 73 - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj has outperformed 73% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS)Rating - D+ - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj belongs to an industry group that has performed in the bottom 40% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months. (This grade dropped from a C- to a D+ today)
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating - A - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj rates in the top 20% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - B+ - Commerce Bancorp Inc Nj stock has been experiencing moderate buying, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks. (This grade dropped from an A- to a B+ today as buying of the stock has slowed.)
CNBC's Stock Scouter score of 8 (This grade dropped from 10 today)
Quick Summary
Pro Earnings growth in the past year is holding steady compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Neutral
One or more analysts has modestly increased quarterly earnings estimates for CBH. Positive
The price-to-sales multiple is slightly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive/Neutral for a medium- to large-sized company like CBH
Con
Shares are being heavily sold by financial institutions. Neutral for a large company like CBH
Recently, the stock has had a nice run. The Cramer effect, from him touting Commerce whenever a caller asks about a bank stock, has probably helped. Cramer's Philly pride shine through in his endorsement of Commerce. He describes CBH more as a retailer than a bank, which allows us to discount the IBD Industry Group grade of D+. CBH would be a solid purchase if the stock price comes down at all, so, onto the WershovenistPig Stock Watch List it goes.
31 August 2005
Intriguing Stocks in Monday's IBD - EDO and CVTX
Here are two very different stocks that I found intriguing in Monday's IBD.
Edo Corporation - EDO
Here are excerpts from a piece in last Monday's IBD by Mike Angell:
Handsets’ Deadly Use: Detonators
More and more terrorists are using cell phones to remotely detonate bombs — and there’s not much authorities can do about it. At least, not that they can say. Cell phones have been connected to terrorist bombings in Madrid, Bali and Israel. Many roadside bombs in Iraq are believed to be triggered by cell phones....
The U.S. military in Iraq is equipped with an estimated 4,200 jammers to prevent all kinds of remotely detonated bombs. New York based Edo Corp. makes the product, but a spokesman said the company declined to comment.
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Edo Corporation (EDO) Ratings as of 8/30/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating - 88 - Edo Corporation has outperformed 88% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 23 - Edo Corporation has outperformed 23% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating - C+ - Edo Corporation belongs to an industry group that has performed in the bottom 60% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating - B - Edo Corporation rates in the top 40% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - B- Edo Corporation stock has been experiencing moderate buying, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks.
CNBC's Stock Scouter rates EDO a 7:
EDO Corporation, a small-cap value company in the capital goods sector, is expected to outperform the market over the next six months with less than average risk.
Quick Summary
Pro
Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Positive
One or more analysts has modestly increased quarterly earnings estimates for EDO. Positive
Con
The most recent quarterly earnings report was slightly lower than analysts’ consensus forecast. Neutral/Negative
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is low. Negative
EDO is a commendably tight-lipped company making very useful tools that may frustrate terrorists and their intentions. Electronic jammers may not be glamorous devices made by Q for 007, but this is no longer the good old days of the Cold War. EDO manufactures an intriguing device, it's trading at $27.30, near its 52-week low of $25.89, and has pretty good numbers. Wish I knew more about the company and these products, but at the same time, I'm glad I don't. So let's put it into the WershovenistPig stock watch list.
CV Therapeutics - CVTX
Here are excerpts from a piece by Peter Benesh:
Drug Firm Is Ready For Liftoff
Looks like it’s three strikes and you’re in for the folks at CV Therapeutics. It’s taken 14 years, but CV now has three heart-related drugs close to launch, two within the next three quarters and the third by 2007....
The first drug from CV is Aceon for hypertension. The second is Ranexa for chronic angina. The third, Regadenoson, is called a cardiac stressor. It’s used for patients who can’t take the usual treadmill heart stress test....
THE COMPANY
CV Therapeutics went public in 1996. It focuses on molecular, or chemically based, treatments for cardiovascular problems. The firm’s science is based on receptors. Receptors are tiny structures on cells that let hormones, germs and chemicals trigger changes within the cell. Lange doesn’t personally know of any rivals that do the same thing. “But there maybe competition we don’t know about,” he said.
LOOKING AHEAD
CV is working on treatments for asthma and two other heart conditions, Lange says. The wild card is whether it remains an independent company. “Biotech is the home of innovation, (and) big pharma is so big it needs more and more drugs to meet expectations,” Monane said. That means CV could be a buyout target. Lange acknowledges as much.“We’ve been on a lot of lists.” Still, Lange says his goal is for CV to be as big as Amgen or Genentech.
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
C V Therapeutics Inc (CVTX) Ratings as of 8/30/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) - 6 - C V Therapeutics Inc has outperformed 6% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 92 - C V Therapeutics Inc has outperformed 92% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating - A+ - C V Therapeutics Inc belongs to an industry group that has performed in the top 20% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) - D - C V Therapeutics Inc rates in the bottom 40% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - B - C V Therapeutics Inc stock has been experiencing moderate buying, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks.
CNBC's Stock Scouter rates CVTX a 5:
CV Therapeutics, Inc., a small-cap growth company in the health care sector, is expected to outperform the market over the next six months with average risk.
Quick Summary
Pro
Shares are under heavy accumulation by financial institutions. Positive for a small company like CVTX
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is high. Positive
Con
The price-to-earnings multiple is a negative number. No effect
Previous day's closing price for CVTX was close to its 50-day moving average. Neutral
CVTX is near its 52-week high, but that's not surprising if executives are name-dropping companies like Genentech (DNA) that have been just soaring. I wish it were cheaper as this is a company that hasn't made any money yet, but has potential, potential not just now but months from now, when I'll be investing. And it has potential in not just one drug, but three. Three is less risky than one. This is another intriguing stock for the stock watch list.
Edo Corporation - EDO
Here are excerpts from a piece in last Monday's IBD by Mike Angell:
Handsets’ Deadly Use: Detonators
More and more terrorists are using cell phones to remotely detonate bombs — and there’s not much authorities can do about it. At least, not that they can say. Cell phones have been connected to terrorist bombings in Madrid, Bali and Israel. Many roadside bombs in Iraq are believed to be triggered by cell phones....
The U.S. military in Iraq is equipped with an estimated 4,200 jammers to prevent all kinds of remotely detonated bombs. New York based Edo Corp. makes the product, but a spokesman said the company declined to comment.
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Edo Corporation (EDO) Ratings as of 8/30/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating - 88 - Edo Corporation has outperformed 88% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 23 - Edo Corporation has outperformed 23% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating - C+ - Edo Corporation belongs to an industry group that has performed in the bottom 60% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating - B - Edo Corporation rates in the top 40% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - B- Edo Corporation stock has been experiencing moderate buying, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks.
CNBC's Stock Scouter rates EDO a 7:
EDO Corporation, a small-cap value company in the capital goods sector, is expected to outperform the market over the next six months with less than average risk.
Quick Summary
Pro
Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Positive
One or more analysts has modestly increased quarterly earnings estimates for EDO. Positive
Con
The most recent quarterly earnings report was slightly lower than analysts’ consensus forecast. Neutral/Negative
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is low. Negative
EDO is a commendably tight-lipped company making very useful tools that may frustrate terrorists and their intentions. Electronic jammers may not be glamorous devices made by Q for 007, but this is no longer the good old days of the Cold War. EDO manufactures an intriguing device, it's trading at $27.30, near its 52-week low of $25.89, and has pretty good numbers. Wish I knew more about the company and these products, but at the same time, I'm glad I don't. So let's put it into the WershovenistPig stock watch list.
CV Therapeutics - CVTX
Here are excerpts from a piece by Peter Benesh:
Drug Firm Is Ready For Liftoff
Looks like it’s three strikes and you’re in for the folks at CV Therapeutics. It’s taken 14 years, but CV now has three heart-related drugs close to launch, two within the next three quarters and the third by 2007....
The first drug from CV is Aceon for hypertension. The second is Ranexa for chronic angina. The third, Regadenoson, is called a cardiac stressor. It’s used for patients who can’t take the usual treadmill heart stress test....
THE COMPANY
CV Therapeutics went public in 1996. It focuses on molecular, or chemically based, treatments for cardiovascular problems. The firm’s science is based on receptors. Receptors are tiny structures on cells that let hormones, germs and chemicals trigger changes within the cell. Lange doesn’t personally know of any rivals that do the same thing. “But there maybe competition we don’t know about,” he said.
LOOKING AHEAD
CV is working on treatments for asthma and two other heart conditions, Lange says. The wild card is whether it remains an independent company. “Biotech is the home of innovation, (and) big pharma is so big it needs more and more drugs to meet expectations,” Monane said. That means CV could be a buyout target. Lange acknowledges as much.“We’ve been on a lot of lists.” Still, Lange says his goal is for CV to be as big as Amgen or Genentech.
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
C V Therapeutics Inc (CVTX) Ratings as of 8/30/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) - 6 - C V Therapeutics Inc has outperformed 6% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 92 - C V Therapeutics Inc has outperformed 92% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating - A+ - C V Therapeutics Inc belongs to an industry group that has performed in the top 20% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) - D - C V Therapeutics Inc rates in the bottom 40% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - B - C V Therapeutics Inc stock has been experiencing moderate buying, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks.
CNBC's Stock Scouter rates CVTX a 5:
CV Therapeutics, Inc., a small-cap growth company in the health care sector, is expected to outperform the market over the next six months with average risk.
Quick Summary
Pro
Shares are under heavy accumulation by financial institutions. Positive for a small company like CVTX
The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is high. Positive
Con
The price-to-earnings multiple is a negative number. No effect
Previous day's closing price for CVTX was close to its 50-day moving average. Neutral
CVTX is near its 52-week high, but that's not surprising if executives are name-dropping companies like Genentech (DNA) that have been just soaring. I wish it were cheaper as this is a company that hasn't made any money yet, but has potential, potential not just now but months from now, when I'll be investing. And it has potential in not just one drug, but three. Three is less risky than one. This is another intriguing stock for the stock watch list.
30 August 2005
ATI Technologies plummets right onto the watch list...
Back on August 15, Cramer discussed a Canadian 3D graphics chip manufacturer on his radio show. Here's the recap:
Sam from Northwest asked about the halo effect from Xbox and flat-panel televisions on ATI ( ATYT). Cramer answered, "When I look at situations where I talk about tech and why I want to be in it, I'm thinking about companies like ATYT." The fact that it's at a 52-week low looks like an opportunity to Cramer, who said ATI should be bought. As a company with a mixed record, it's not a high quality company to Cramer by any means, but he said, "It shouldn't be this low. I would buy it for a trade."
Cramer's been advocating a tech rally in the second half of 2005, saying that there is an exciting new product cycle on the horizon. While I tend to think about high quality companies with products I use, like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) with their wonderfully addictive Earth application, I also want to find smaller, less obvious players. ATYT seemed like a good combination of tech plus low price.
ATYT has continued downhill since August 15, helped by a shareholder lawsuit. I was about to look more into this company when this news hit:
ATI Technologies cuts 4Q forecast
Chipmaker expects inventory write-down of $60 million
By Scott Banerjee, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:31 PM ET Aug. 29, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- ATI Technologies Inc. said after the market close Monday that its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue would come in substantially lower than previously forecast as a result of slow sales for desktop computer chips and a sizable inventory write-down.
The graphics chipmaker cut its fourth-quarter revenue forecast to a range of $465 million to $480 million, compared with its previous forecast of $550 million to $680 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting revenue of $560.9 million.
The news sent shares of Markham, Ontario-based ATI down 12.6% to $9.90 in after-hours trading.
ATI (ATYT: news, chart, profile) said its desktop product line sales slowed, both in units and average selling prices.
The company expects an inventory write-down of $60 million to $70 million, and its gross margin percentage to fall into single digit range from a previous prediction of 29% to 30%.
ATI also said operating expenses, excluding stock-based compensation costs, are expected to be in the range of $143 million to $148 million. The company did not offer a revised earnings forecast. Analysts had previously expected a profits 7 cents a share.
ATI will be providing the graphics processor units for the Xbox 360 video game console from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT: news, chart, profile), due out on shelves this holiday season.
The after hours trading was as brutal as one would expect, taking the stock down a dollar from $11.34 to $10.34.
This is wonderful news. Notice, the news report says that ATI will still be putting chips into the new Xbox. Cramer though this stock was cheap at $12. Since I have both time to see where this stock goes and time before new Xbox sales affect this stock, ATYT has just plummeted right onto the watch list.
Sam from Northwest asked about the halo effect from Xbox and flat-panel televisions on ATI ( ATYT). Cramer answered, "When I look at situations where I talk about tech and why I want to be in it, I'm thinking about companies like ATYT." The fact that it's at a 52-week low looks like an opportunity to Cramer, who said ATI should be bought. As a company with a mixed record, it's not a high quality company to Cramer by any means, but he said, "It shouldn't be this low. I would buy it for a trade."
Cramer's been advocating a tech rally in the second half of 2005, saying that there is an exciting new product cycle on the horizon. While I tend to think about high quality companies with products I use, like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) with their wonderfully addictive Earth application, I also want to find smaller, less obvious players. ATYT seemed like a good combination of tech plus low price.
ATYT has continued downhill since August 15, helped by a shareholder lawsuit. I was about to look more into this company when this news hit:
ATI Technologies cuts 4Q forecast
Chipmaker expects inventory write-down of $60 million
By Scott Banerjee, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:31 PM ET Aug. 29, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- ATI Technologies Inc. said after the market close Monday that its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue would come in substantially lower than previously forecast as a result of slow sales for desktop computer chips and a sizable inventory write-down.
The graphics chipmaker cut its fourth-quarter revenue forecast to a range of $465 million to $480 million, compared with its previous forecast of $550 million to $680 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting revenue of $560.9 million.
The news sent shares of Markham, Ontario-based ATI down 12.6% to $9.90 in after-hours trading.
ATI (ATYT: news, chart, profile) said its desktop product line sales slowed, both in units and average selling prices.
The company expects an inventory write-down of $60 million to $70 million, and its gross margin percentage to fall into single digit range from a previous prediction of 29% to 30%.
ATI also said operating expenses, excluding stock-based compensation costs, are expected to be in the range of $143 million to $148 million. The company did not offer a revised earnings forecast. Analysts had previously expected a profits 7 cents a share.
ATI will be providing the graphics processor units for the Xbox 360 video game console from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT: news, chart, profile), due out on shelves this holiday season.
The after hours trading was as brutal as one would expect, taking the stock down a dollar from $11.34 to $10.34.
This is wonderful news. Notice, the news report says that ATI will still be putting chips into the new Xbox. Cramer though this stock was cheap at $12. Since I have both time to see where this stock goes and time before new Xbox sales affect this stock, ATYT has just plummeted right onto the watch list.
29 August 2005
What's the difference between a couple of tanking stocks?
Design Within Reach (DWRI) and Pier One Imports (PIR), two home furnishings retailers have recently visited their 52-week lows. DWRI sells high end design at ever-so-slightly less than high end prices via "studios" in cities and ritzy towns (think Greenwich, CT, and Princeton, NJ) throughout the US. PIR sells glorified dorm room rattan furniture by securing the services of Kirstie Alley pre-Fat Actress and Thom Filicia after Queer Eye exhausted its formula.
I guess you can see where I'm going with this one. If you just used CNBC's Stock Scouter, you'd see little difference. DWRI scores a lowly 3/10, while PIR achieves an even lower 2/10. Here are the Stock Scouter details for DWRI:
Fundamental
Grade: D
• The most recent quarterly earnings report was slightly lower than analysts' consensus forecast. Neutral/Negative
• Earnings growth information is unavailable or inconsistent.
• One or more analysts has modestly decreased quarterly earnings estimates for DWRI. Negative
Ownership
Grade: C
• Insider trading information is unavailable or inconsistent.
• Shares are under heavy accumulation by financial institutions. Positive for a small company like DWRI
Valuation
Grade: C
• The price-to-earnings multiple is higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative
• The price-to-sales multiple is slightly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative for a small company like DWRI
• The ratio of DWRI's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is unavailable or inconsistent.
Technical
Grade: F
• The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very low. Very negative
• Previous day's closing price for DWRI was significantly below its 50-day moving average, a level from which prices frequently rebound over the long term. Positive
And here are the Stock Scouter details for PIR:
Fundamental
Grade: F
• The most recent quarterly earnings report was slightly lower than analysts' consensus forecast. Neutral/Negative
• Earnings growth in the past year has decelerated rapidly compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Negative
• One or more analysts has modestly decreased quarterly earnings estimates for PIR. Negative
Ownership
Grade: F
• Two or more executives, directors or major shareholders sold a large number of shares recently. Very negative
• Institutional holdings information is unavailable or inconsistent.
Valuation
Grade: C
• The price-to-earnings multiple is higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative
• Price-to-sales information is unavailable or inconsistent.
• The ratio of PIR's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is negative or below the average of all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative
Technical
Grade: F
• The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very low. Very negative
• Previous day's closing price for PIR was slightly below its 50-day moving average. Negative
Okay, these are not promising grades, more like the Delta House's performance recited by Dean Wormer.
Now let's look at the Investor's Business Daily's infomation for DWRI:
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating 97 - Design Within Reach Inc has outperformed 97% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating 7 - Design Within Reach Inc has outperformed 7% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating D - Design Within Reach Inc belongs to an industry group that has performed in the bottom 40% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating A - Design Within Reach Inc rates in the top 20% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating D- - Design Within Reach Inc stock has been experiencing moderate selling, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks.
And the IBD infomation for PIR:
Pier 1 Imports Inc (PIR) Ratings as of 8/29/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating - 25 - Pier 1 Imports Inc has outperformed 25% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 5 - Pier 1 Imports Inc has outperformed 5% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating - D - Pier 1 Imports Inc belongs to an industry group that has performed in the bottom 40% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating - D - Pier 1 Imports Inc rates in the bottom 40% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - D- - Pier 1 Imports Inc stock has been experiencing moderate selling, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks.
This sector has not done well in the market lately, which explains the D grades in Industry Group Relative Strength. Howevern the difference between these companies is really night and day. DWRI garners some low grades, such as the F in Technical and D- in Accumulation/Distribution because the price is down and there's been heavy selling. That's exactly where we want to find a cheap stock. DWRI recently lowered its guidance and has taken quite the hit from the market as detailed below:
By Mark Martinez
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
8/5/2005 11:06 AM EDT
Design Within Reach (DWRI:Nasdaq - news - research) fell 22% after the company previewed second-quarter earnings that fell below expectations and lowered its 2005 earnings outlook. The design furnishings and accessories company reported preliminary earnings of $1.4 million, or 9 cents a share, on sales of $41.9 million. Analysts were expecting earnings of 10 cents a share on sales of $39 million. A year ago, the company earned $806,000, or 7 cents a share, on sales of $28.2 million. Looking ahead, Design Within Reach now expects 2005 earnings of 40 cents to 42 cents a share, which is well below its previous guidance of 51 cents a share. Guidance "reflects the company's decision to minimize the use of promotional activity to offset product and shipping margin pressures and additional Sarbanes-Oxley compliance expenses," the company said. As for the sales, the company remains comfortable with guidance of $160 million to $165 million. Analysts had been expecting earnings of 51 cents a share on sales of $167.5 million. Shares were trading down $3.78 to $13.41.
I think, in spite of all this bad news, that DWRI is an growth company with an intriguing product line and catalog. Although earnings missed Wall Street expectation, just look at its growing sales figures. And if you check out their locations on their website, there are still plenty of tony towns without Design within Reach locations. So I'm adding DWRI to the WershovenistPig stock watch list.
On the other hand, PIR is ubiquitous and a bit dowdy. It's not a growth play. So even though PIR's stock price in in the bargain bin with DWRI, it's too shoddy to be added to the stock watch list.
I guess you can see where I'm going with this one. If you just used CNBC's Stock Scouter, you'd see little difference. DWRI scores a lowly 3/10, while PIR achieves an even lower 2/10. Here are the Stock Scouter details for DWRI:
Fundamental
Grade: D
• The most recent quarterly earnings report was slightly lower than analysts' consensus forecast. Neutral/Negative
• Earnings growth information is unavailable or inconsistent.
• One or more analysts has modestly decreased quarterly earnings estimates for DWRI. Negative
Ownership
Grade: C
• Insider trading information is unavailable or inconsistent.
• Shares are under heavy accumulation by financial institutions. Positive for a small company like DWRI
Valuation
Grade: C
• The price-to-earnings multiple is higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative
• The price-to-sales multiple is slightly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative for a small company like DWRI
• The ratio of DWRI's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is unavailable or inconsistent.
Technical
Grade: F
• The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very low. Very negative
• Previous day's closing price for DWRI was significantly below its 50-day moving average, a level from which prices frequently rebound over the long term. Positive
And here are the Stock Scouter details for PIR:
Fundamental
Grade: F
• The most recent quarterly earnings report was slightly lower than analysts' consensus forecast. Neutral/Negative
• Earnings growth in the past year has decelerated rapidly compared to earnings growth in the past three years. Negative
• One or more analysts has modestly decreased quarterly earnings estimates for PIR. Negative
Ownership
Grade: F
• Two or more executives, directors or major shareholders sold a large number of shares recently. Very negative
• Institutional holdings information is unavailable or inconsistent.
Valuation
Grade: C
• The price-to-earnings multiple is higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative
• Price-to-sales information is unavailable or inconsistent.
• The ratio of PIR's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is negative or below the average of all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative
Technical
Grade: F
• The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very low. Very negative
• Previous day's closing price for PIR was slightly below its 50-day moving average. Negative
Okay, these are not promising grades, more like the Delta House's performance recited by Dean Wormer.
Now let's look at the Investor's Business Daily's infomation for DWRI:
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating 97 - Design Within Reach Inc has outperformed 97% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating 7 - Design Within Reach Inc has outperformed 7% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating D - Design Within Reach Inc belongs to an industry group that has performed in the bottom 40% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating A - Design Within Reach Inc rates in the top 20% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating D- - Design Within Reach Inc stock has been experiencing moderate selling, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks.
And the IBD infomation for PIR:
Pier 1 Imports Inc (PIR) Ratings as of 8/29/2005
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating - 25 - Pier 1 Imports Inc has outperformed 25% of all publicly-traded companies based on its short and long term earnings growth rates.
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating - 5 - Pier 1 Imports Inc has outperformed 5% of all publicly-traded companies in terms of its stock price performance over the last 12 months.
Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating - D - Pier 1 Imports Inc belongs to an industry group that has performed in the bottom 40% of the 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, measured over the last six months.
Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating - D - Pier 1 Imports Inc rates in the bottom 40% of all publicly-traded companies based on four fundamental factors used by many analysts today: a company's sales growth rate over the last three quarters, before- and after-tax profit margins, and return on equity (ROE).
Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating - D- - Pier 1 Imports Inc stock has been experiencing moderate selling, based on its daily price and volume changes over the last 13 weeks.
This sector has not done well in the market lately, which explains the D grades in Industry Group Relative Strength. Howevern the difference between these companies is really night and day. DWRI garners some low grades, such as the F in Technical and D- in Accumulation/Distribution because the price is down and there's been heavy selling. That's exactly where we want to find a cheap stock. DWRI recently lowered its guidance and has taken quite the hit from the market as detailed below:
By Mark Martinez
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
8/5/2005 11:06 AM EDT
Design Within Reach (DWRI:Nasdaq - news - research) fell 22% after the company previewed second-quarter earnings that fell below expectations and lowered its 2005 earnings outlook. The design furnishings and accessories company reported preliminary earnings of $1.4 million, or 9 cents a share, on sales of $41.9 million. Analysts were expecting earnings of 10 cents a share on sales of $39 million. A year ago, the company earned $806,000, or 7 cents a share, on sales of $28.2 million. Looking ahead, Design Within Reach now expects 2005 earnings of 40 cents to 42 cents a share, which is well below its previous guidance of 51 cents a share. Guidance "reflects the company's decision to minimize the use of promotional activity to offset product and shipping margin pressures and additional Sarbanes-Oxley compliance expenses," the company said. As for the sales, the company remains comfortable with guidance of $160 million to $165 million. Analysts had been expecting earnings of 51 cents a share on sales of $167.5 million. Shares were trading down $3.78 to $13.41.
I think, in spite of all this bad news, that DWRI is an growth company with an intriguing product line and catalog. Although earnings missed Wall Street expectation, just look at its growing sales figures. And if you check out their locations on their website, there are still plenty of tony towns without Design within Reach locations. So I'm adding DWRI to the WershovenistPig stock watch list.
On the other hand, PIR is ubiquitous and a bit dowdy. It's not a growth play. So even though PIR's stock price in in the bargain bin with DWRI, it's too shoddy to be added to the stock watch list.
26 August 2005
Let's Examine Some Stocks: DSW and J. Crew
The retail sector does not seem to be the place to be right now.
I say good. Just the place for me to look as I’m not investing today, but a couple of months down the road.
On that note, let’s take a look at a recently issued stock and an upcoming IPO in the apparel/shoes business.
DSW just hit a new low today, just a couple of days after IBD featuring the company in its The New America section from Wednesday. Here are some promising excerpts:
As an off-price retailer, DSW can
buy well-known brands and designer
labels at low prices because of relationships
it’s developed with vendors
since its start in 1997. It has ties
with 300 leading brands, including
KennethCole.
In its early years DSW mainly
bought overstocked items and year old
goods. That changed as its vendor
relationships strengthened.
Now 80% of its goods are current
and in season, says Chief Financial
Officer Douglas Probst.
To make sure customers get fresh
goods, DSW delivers a new crop of
shoes to stores every week.
The company mainly competes
with department stores. A typical
DSW store carries 30,000 pairs of
shoes in 2,000 styles. That’s twice
the assortment you’ll find at most department
stores, Probst says.
This “thrill of the hunt” strategy is
key to DSW’s success, experts say.
DSW also encourages customer
loyalty. Its “reward your style” program
offers added savings to frequent
shoppers. The program has
5.5 million members. About 60% of
DSW’s annual sales come from program members,
Probst says.
Earnings for the quarter
are scheduled to be reported on
Sept. 7.
Analysts polled by First Call see
full-year earnings rising 18% to 99
cents a share. They expect profit to
move up 22% to $1.21 onf iscal 2006.
DSW’s stock performance has
been pretty sketchy. Shares opened
at 19 on June 29, bobbed up and
down over the next three weeks,
then peaked at 27.50 on July 25.The
stock has staggered since then and
trades near 25.
The company’s growth strategy involves
opening about 30 stores a
year, including this year.
“We could open 30 stores a year
for the next seven years and not be
at 400, which is at least the number
of stores the DSW concept could
have,” said Probst.
He sees strong expansion potential
in the Southwest and California.
“They still have a lot of landscape
out there to cover,” said Retail Forward’s
Putnam. “The chain isn’t
that big at this point, and there are
lots of location alternatives where
they can get good growth.”
On the anecdotal side of things, a friend and former co-worker, thedigitalbuffalo found a wonderful pair of designer shoes cheap at DSW. I recovered from a traumatic J. Crew shoe experience by shopping there, procuring a stylish pair of Tommy Hilfiger loafers at their new Union Square location.
I am putting DSW on my watch list, eagerly anticipating their 2Q conference call on September 7. If you want to join in on the listen, here’s how:
The conference call can be accessed two ways:
- Live over the internet: log on to the web at www.DSWshoe.com
- Call in: please dial 866-202-4683 and reference passcode
# 66869384 at least 5 minutes prior to the scheduled start
time.
Now onto a company I am far less interested in, J.Crew. They must be
thrilled with the retail sector's recent performance, what with their
upcoming IPO. Personally, I have not been particularly happy with the
quality and longevity of J.Crew's clothing and shoes. As a prep who
wears argyle socks everywhere but the gym and the beach, their
clothing should appeal to me, but also should survive more than half a
season. This stuff should be timeless, and last just as long. My two J.Crew
t-shirts I bought in 1991 in Center City, Philadelphia look better than the
J.Crew sweaters I purchased in the middle of last winter.
I mentioned a traumatic shoe experience above, so here's the riveting
story: bought two pairs of shoes that began to disintegrate after a
few weeks of wear. The rubber seal piece between the leather upper and
the sole had the appearance of being stitched on, but really was glued
on, and only barely. However, they took them back and credited my
account; I bet every purchaser of these shoes was having the same
problem I had. So the shoes sucked, but the customer service was
smooth and professional. Reminded me of the Saturn division of GM having great customer service, in the business of selling crap cars?
I say good. Just the place for me to look as I’m not investing today, but a couple of months down the road.
On that note, let’s take a look at a recently issued stock and an upcoming IPO in the apparel/shoes business.
DSW just hit a new low today, just a couple of days after IBD featuring the company in its The New America section from Wednesday. Here are some promising excerpts:
As an off-price retailer, DSW can
buy well-known brands and designer
labels at low prices because of relationships
it’s developed with vendors
since its start in 1997. It has ties
with 300 leading brands, including
KennethCole.
In its early years DSW mainly
bought overstocked items and year old
goods. That changed as its vendor
relationships strengthened.
Now 80% of its goods are current
and in season, says Chief Financial
Officer Douglas Probst.
To make sure customers get fresh
goods, DSW delivers a new crop of
shoes to stores every week.
The company mainly competes
with department stores. A typical
DSW store carries 30,000 pairs of
shoes in 2,000 styles. That’s twice
the assortment you’ll find at most department
stores, Probst says.
This “thrill of the hunt” strategy is
key to DSW’s success, experts say.
DSW also encourages customer
loyalty. Its “reward your style” program
offers added savings to frequent
shoppers. The program has
5.5 million members. About 60% of
DSW’s annual sales come from program members,
Probst says.
Earnings for the quarter
are scheduled to be reported on
Sept. 7.
Analysts polled by First Call see
full-year earnings rising 18% to 99
cents a share. They expect profit to
move up 22% to $1.21 onf iscal 2006.
DSW’s stock performance has
been pretty sketchy. Shares opened
at 19 on June 29, bobbed up and
down over the next three weeks,
then peaked at 27.50 on July 25.The
stock has staggered since then and
trades near 25.
The company’s growth strategy involves
opening about 30 stores a
year, including this year.
“We could open 30 stores a year
for the next seven years and not be
at 400, which is at least the number
of stores the DSW concept could
have,” said Probst.
He sees strong expansion potential
in the Southwest and California.
“They still have a lot of landscape
out there to cover,” said Retail Forward’s
Putnam. “The chain isn’t
that big at this point, and there are
lots of location alternatives where
they can get good growth.”
On the anecdotal side of things, a friend and former co-worker, thedigitalbuffalo found a wonderful pair of designer shoes cheap at DSW. I recovered from a traumatic J. Crew shoe experience by shopping there, procuring a stylish pair of Tommy Hilfiger loafers at their new Union Square location.
I am putting DSW on my watch list, eagerly anticipating their 2Q conference call on September 7. If you want to join in on the listen, here’s how:
The conference call can be accessed two ways:
- Live over the internet: log on to the web at www.DSWshoe.com
- Call in: please dial 866-202-4683 and reference passcode
# 66869384 at least 5 minutes prior to the scheduled start
time.
Now onto a company I am far less interested in, J.Crew. They must be
thrilled with the retail sector's recent performance, what with their
upcoming IPO. Personally, I have not been particularly happy with the
quality and longevity of J.Crew's clothing and shoes. As a prep who
wears argyle socks everywhere but the gym and the beach, their
clothing should appeal to me, but also should survive more than half a
season. This stuff should be timeless, and last just as long. My two J.Crew
t-shirts I bought in 1991 in Center City, Philadelphia look better than the
J.Crew sweaters I purchased in the middle of last winter.
I mentioned a traumatic shoe experience above, so here's the riveting
story: bought two pairs of shoes that began to disintegrate after a
few weeks of wear. The rubber seal piece between the leather upper and
the sole had the appearance of being stitched on, but really was glued
on, and only barely. However, they took them back and credited my
account; I bet every purchaser of these shoes was having the same
problem I had. So the shoes sucked, but the customer service was
smooth and professional. Reminded me of the Saturn division of GM having great customer service, in the business of selling crap cars?
24 August 2005
I take the 1 train to Times Square, then the shuttle to Grand Central to get to the office. Once at my desk, the first thing I do on the 'net each day is go the New York Times. No surprise that this morning, I read "New Cameras to Watch Over Subway System" right off the bat. Apparently, the MTA awarded Lockheed Martin and a group of smaller companies the contract to increase surveillance of my preferred method of transportation. After feeling hopeful about improved security, I noticed the last two paragraphs of the piece detailing the smaller companies that will work with Lockheed.
The one company that stood out for me was the Cubic Corporation which created the MetroCard system that subplanted the token. I then googled the company and found its listing on the AMEX. Cubic, as of this morning, was near its 52-week low, trading at about $17. If I were currently investing with real money, I would have placed a limit order for 100-200 shares at upwards of $17.25 as a speculative trading opportunity.
I also would have considered Lockheed Martin, but since I'm not going to be able to invest real sums for about two more months, and I had my job to attend to, I didn't pursue researching that behemoth.
At around 4pm, I put on my headphones and plugged into Cramer's radio show, Real Money. His lead story, subway surveillance. His lead stock pick, Cubic Corporation. Cramer noted that Cubic was the most interesting company among the contract winners as it was at a 52-week low and had an interesting business model combining transportation and defense, a combo that seemed ridiculous to him prior to the despicable London Underground bombings. Cramer also pointed out that the subway contract's value of $200MM would barely affect a Lockheed Martin's balance sheet, while such a contract would be significant for a smaller player like Cubic.
I popped open the one day chart for Cubic and saw the result of Cramer's spotlight: Cubic jumped at the 2 o'clock hour, when his radio show airs live, from $17 to roughly $18.50, an 8% jump in the afternoon. Lockheed, on the other hand, was down 1.2% for the day.
Would've been a nice trade. I hope I spot these when there's money on the line.
The one company that stood out for me was the Cubic Corporation which created the MetroCard system that subplanted the token. I then googled the company and found its listing on the AMEX. Cubic, as of this morning, was near its 52-week low, trading at about $17. If I were currently investing with real money, I would have placed a limit order for 100-200 shares at upwards of $17.25 as a speculative trading opportunity.
I also would have considered Lockheed Martin, but since I'm not going to be able to invest real sums for about two more months, and I had my job to attend to, I didn't pursue researching that behemoth.
At around 4pm, I put on my headphones and plugged into Cramer's radio show, Real Money. His lead story, subway surveillance. His lead stock pick, Cubic Corporation. Cramer noted that Cubic was the most interesting company among the contract winners as it was at a 52-week low and had an interesting business model combining transportation and defense, a combo that seemed ridiculous to him prior to the despicable London Underground bombings. Cramer also pointed out that the subway contract's value of $200MM would barely affect a Lockheed Martin's balance sheet, while such a contract would be significant for a smaller player like Cubic.
I popped open the one day chart for Cubic and saw the result of Cramer's spotlight: Cubic jumped at the 2 o'clock hour, when his radio show airs live, from $17 to roughly $18.50, an 8% jump in the afternoon. Lockheed, on the other hand, was down 1.2% for the day.
Would've been a nice trade. I hope I spot these when there's money on the line.
23 August 2005
It begins, tra la la loop de doo!
I came up with the name of this blog while getting my third massage this week in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
One thinks of more important, or perhaps, more sensual things during their first or second coconut scrub rub while on vacation, but by the third one, the mind tends to wander to strange places. Mine was veering back to returning to New York, and to one of my distractions while I blast out some cardio action on the stationary bike at the Equinox on Lex at 44th, namely, Jim Cramer's Mad Money. I was thinking of his oft-recited line, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." It's a catchy line that doesn't really say anything all that interesting, but excuse me while I run with it for a few paragraphs.
I unpack the line this way: smart investors can make money wagering on stocks moving up or down, but once you lose sight of the fundamentals of a company and try to make too much money off of a move, you're a pig. The dot-com/tech bubble made many people pigs. Law school in the late 90's and its attendant lack of income kept me from being piggy during that period. The 1.2 mil+ cost of an entry-level two bedroom condo in Manhattan is keeping me from hitting the trough with other porkers during this current housing market.
So it seems circumstance is keeping me from being piggish, nothing more. Hey, whenever I talk about visiting Montreal like my bud A-Rob did recently, I can't not bring up the restaurant Au Pied de Cochon and it's delectable choucroute entree. The pig's knuckle is to die for, and still beckons, as does the pigless poutine. Philly is now less about the cheesesteaks from Jim's on South Street and more about the roast pork Eye-talian from Tony Luke's. What I'm saying is I love the pig, I get the draw of the pig, I wanna make the buckets of ducats that a pig can make.
However, I understand the need to fight that tendency by searching out good investment ideas, explaining them in writing in this forum, and defending them in this space, open to the comments/criticism/mocking of everyone who reads this piffle. That's why I'm writing this. My plan is to post investment ideas that catch my fancy and attempt to justify them before dropping hard-earned cash on them. If I can't somehow convince my wife and my friends that I'm onto something financially rewarding in this space, then perhaps I should keep that cash earning 3%ish at INGdirect.
Okay, there's the raison d'etre, the mission statement of this blog.
One thinks of more important, or perhaps, more sensual things during their first or second coconut scrub rub while on vacation, but by the third one, the mind tends to wander to strange places. Mine was veering back to returning to New York, and to one of my distractions while I blast out some cardio action on the stationary bike at the Equinox on Lex at 44th, namely, Jim Cramer's Mad Money. I was thinking of his oft-recited line, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." It's a catchy line that doesn't really say anything all that interesting, but excuse me while I run with it for a few paragraphs.
I unpack the line this way: smart investors can make money wagering on stocks moving up or down, but once you lose sight of the fundamentals of a company and try to make too much money off of a move, you're a pig. The dot-com/tech bubble made many people pigs. Law school in the late 90's and its attendant lack of income kept me from being piggy during that period. The 1.2 mil+ cost of an entry-level two bedroom condo in Manhattan is keeping me from hitting the trough with other porkers during this current housing market.
So it seems circumstance is keeping me from being piggish, nothing more. Hey, whenever I talk about visiting Montreal like my bud A-Rob did recently, I can't not bring up the restaurant Au Pied de Cochon and it's delectable choucroute entree. The pig's knuckle is to die for, and still beckons, as does the pigless poutine. Philly is now less about the cheesesteaks from Jim's on South Street and more about the roast pork Eye-talian from Tony Luke's. What I'm saying is I love the pig, I get the draw of the pig, I wanna make the buckets of ducats that a pig can make.
However, I understand the need to fight that tendency by searching out good investment ideas, explaining them in writing in this forum, and defending them in this space, open to the comments/criticism/mocking of everyone who reads this piffle. That's why I'm writing this. My plan is to post investment ideas that catch my fancy and attempt to justify them before dropping hard-earned cash on them. If I can't somehow convince my wife and my friends that I'm onto something financially rewarding in this space, then perhaps I should keep that cash earning 3%ish at INGdirect.
Okay, there's the raison d'etre, the mission statement of this blog.
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