06 January 2009

One Permabear's Predictions for '09

You think I'm bearish right now? Check out the Tech Ticker interview below with permabear Gary Shilling:

Schilling projects 5-6% growth in China whereas the Economist's World in 2009 projects 8%.

Schilling projects that the S&P 500 falls to 600, about 35% below today's close, among other choice bits of negativism:

Gary Shilling's 2009 Predictions: We're Still Screwed

1. Sell homebuilder stocks and bonds.
2. If you plan to sell your house, second home or investment houses anytime soon, do so yesterday.
3. Sell some housing-related stocks.
4. Sell some consumer discretionary spending companies.
5. Sell most commercial real estate.
6. Sell some commodities.
7. Sell emerging market equities.
8. Sell emerging market debt.
9. Buy the dollar.
10. Sell stocks in general. (S&P 500 to 600)
11. Sell consumer lenders' equities.
12. Buy, carefully, high-grade bonds.

One thing to remember: the best economic forecasters from one year rarely retain their prowess through the next.

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