10 May 2009

Buying OIH On The Dips, Or Should I Risk Swing Trading It?

Big bear Tim Knight is considering buying OIH on the dips after nine treacherous weeks of this bear market rally:

TWO- the most bullish thing this market could get would be a hefty retracement next week. Take a look at OIH, for example. Am I a buyer here? Absolutely not! Would I be a buyer at $90. Yes, yes, yes! Indeed, a chart resembling CROX on quite a few more important issues (like OIH, DBC, and the like) would be astonishingly attractive.

At this point, the market's retracement is on the side of a milk carton. It has gone missing, and no one knows if it'll ever be found again. We are in our ninth straight week of this insanity.
I'll say one other thing - - - the confidence regained by the bulls virtually ensures the retracement will be nothing more than just a retracement. In other words, a buying opportunity. I do not anticipate any Big Kahuna plunge to return for many months. We have to get to a level of conceit and confidence among the bulls equal to what we saw in October 2007. Until then, my plan is (a) cover shorts/sell puts upon the completion of any decent retracement (b) load up on the best-looking long opportunities I can find.

Take a look at the recent annotated OIH chart of the past three months, followed by a weekly OIH chart over the past three years, and concluding with a chart in between, covering the last seven months:

OIH closed on Friday at $103.15, May 105 puts closed at $3.60. June 105 puts, ~$7.50.
Also,note the 200DMA of OIH is $103.76. OIH pushed above it to $104.50 intraday, but resistance held.


The combination of high RSI(2) on the daily and weekly charts, plus the overhead 200DMA makes this an interesting put play. However, puts are the riskier purchase, as Tim is supporting the idea of buying the dips, i.e. buy calls when OIH hits $90.

Fair enough. Going short this market has been painful, even when the charts suggest it's a good play.

1 comment:

Jeff said...

So your throwing in the towel I see... you call it insanity yet have decided to jump right in yourself? The Charts are telling us all we need to know they just dont react on our time frame all the time, I for one have chosen to be a bit more patient heres a link I think you'd be interested in http://www.cnbc.com/id/30682133.

Happy Trading