05 February 2009

Which Way Will the Market Go?

The two purple trend lines on the above chart of the S&P 500 are converging into a triangle pattern. Which way will the market go?

I think the market will break down, after the recent failure of the S&P to break the 850 resistance level, the rejection at the 50DMA, and after today's market turnaround.

Todd Harrison at Minyanville thinks the market is about to make a "monster move":

The question, quite naturally, is "what now" as we await the "package" from the Beltway. My gut, for what it's worth, is that this complex sees a meaty upside trade in the near-future, part of the "rally window" we discussed that exists between January 20th and when the bloom fades from the Rose Garden.
The trick to this trade--and by trick, I mean risk rather than edge--is the binary nature of the announcement. In other words, we'll walk in one day next week and the sector, as a whole, and the market, as a function of that price action, will be demonstrably higher or lower depending on popular perception of the package.

For my part, I've reminded myself that discipline must always trump conviction and while my gut screams higher, the mechanics of the swing will trump the results of the at-bat.
Harrison thinks the market will go higher, and like me, admits to talking his book and having positions that back up that belief.

I do agree that the Obama/Geithner announcement on their banking plan, presumably next week, will move the markets.

What this means is I'm geared up and at the ready to make portfolio adjustments as technical and fundamental/news cycle information comes.

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