09 April 2009

Fibonacci Retracements on the Dow and R2K

Found this video presentation of Fibonacci tools via Afraid to Trade. The presentation is basic, but it did alert me to the fact that today's market rally came to a screeching halt at the 61.8% retracement level described in the video. Here's my annotated chart to make the point:

Will the Dow sell off next week? The Fibonacci retracement suggests that the Dow should pull back from today's close, but I have no idea, and I'm more interested in what the Russell 2000 is doing, since that's where my money is.

I worked up a chart of the Russell 2000, for comparison's sake, since I'm currently holding shares of TZA that took quite a shellacking today.

Click on the above chart to make it, and my comments, larger. The ~472 level on the R2K is where I'll be paying attention when trading resumes on Monday. Why? Because it's still the overhead resistance level from earlier this year, and to a lesser extent, 472 represents the 61.8% retracement from the early-November high.

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