19 April 2009

Thoughts on the S&P 500 for the Coming Week

89.6% of the S&P 500 is trading above its 50-day moving average. That's 448 out of 500 for the mathematically disinclined.

I seem to be posting updated versions of this chart every few days now, as this market continues to defy gravity and rationality.

Again, I ask the question, will this market rally end soon?

Looking at the S&P 500 chart below, you'll see that some significant overhead resistance, as well as some short-term overbought indicators, could put the brakes on this rally:

Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade sees a potential bearish rising wedge forming in the S&P 500. Click on the link and check out the post on Afraid to Trade for his annotated chart, but here's the suggested strategy:

The expected play at a minimum is for a retest of the rising trendline around 850, but aggressive traders might want to hold on for a larger target should price weasel its way out of the wedge formation, which would be quite bearish. Should price continue to rally and break outside the wedge, the stop-loss point would be clearly defined.

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