12 November 2008

Portfolio Changes - Swing Trades

Made some portfolio changes today, as my positions in ultra-short financials and ultra-short S&P 500 were looking overbought, and pregnant with profits:

Sold SKF at $164.00 from a cost basis of $124.76 for a gain of 31.5%:

Sold SDS at $100.50 from a cost basis of $82.36 for a gain of 22.0%:

I initiated a swing trade, buying shares of the ultra-long financials ETF, UYG, at a cost basis of $6.735. However, I only committed around 20% of the proceeds from the sale of the ultra-short ETFs to the ultra-long position. I expect to add to the long side tomorrow, but since these are counter-trend long positions, I want to keep these positions smaller.

Swing trading reminded me of the jazzy synth-pop act Swing Out Sister and their 1986 single, Breakout:

So will the markets breakout to the upside soon? The technicals suggest the broader market is oversold.

Phil Davis' market outlook
from Wednesday morning thinks we'll see a turnaround, if not a breakout:
So, will the "R" word finally send us to that blow-off bottom the buyers seem to be waiting for (the real buyers, that is, not the manipulators who swing the market every which way each afternoon)? I still maintain that, fundamentally, a recession is already priced into most of the market and 8,200 remains our BUYBUYBUY target. But investing remains a game for the patient - there is no quick turnaround coming as it's the consumers who are hurting and consumer spending makes up 70% of our economy and there is nothing that Bush, Bernanke or Paulson have done so far that does a damn thing for those consumers so - CAVEAT EMPTOR!

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